COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS: ECONOMETRIC, STATISTICAL, AND TECHNICAL EVALUATION OF AMAZON'S (AMZN) HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE AND PROJECTION 2010-2025.

 

The average price (mean) is approximately $79.83, with a high standard deviation (68.46), indicating significant historical volatility in the stock price. This level of volatility is typical of high-growth technology stocks like Amazon.

The price range (from a minimum of $5.43 to a maximum of $254) and high variance confirm strong past fluctuations. This implies that the stock may experience periods of high turbulence.

The positive skew of 0.60 suggests that the distribution of returns is more likely to exhibit upward than downward variations, which is a favorable signal for investors. The negative kurtosis (-0.94) indicates fewer extreme tails than expected for a normal distribution, showing a lower frequency of very extreme events.

The average monthly return is 1.76%, and the cumulative positive return over 15 years is 2571.03%, highlighting solid and sustained historical growth.

Mathematical forecasts for 90, 180, and 360 days suggest an upward price trend toward the range of $195 to $210, indicating bullish expectations.

Strong linear (92.9%) and polynomial (96.7% for order 6) correlations between the predictor variable and current prices indicate robust predictive models.

Amazon maintains a leading position in e-commerce, cloud services with AWS, and diversification into sectors such as artificial intelligence and logistics. This provides it with a strong foundation to sustain growth and withstand market volatility.

Its capacity for constant innovation and controlled expansion, along with solid financial fundamentals (revenue, cash flow), contribute to long-term stability.

Despite historical volatility, the trend and solid fundamentals make Amazon an attractive stock for medium- and long-term investors.

Incentives for investors come from the expected growth in disruptive technology sectors and global expansion, while the price forecast suggests continued favorable performance.

However, it is recommended to be attentive to macroeconomic risks, regulations, and increasing competition.

Amazon is a solid company with volatility typical of its sector, with a positive technical and fundamental outlook supported by encouraging forecasts for investors. The stock remains an attractive asset for those who tolerate market fluctuations and seek sustained growth. The study covers the period from January 4, 2010, to March 12, 2025. Historical returns show a yield of 2571.03%. This indicates extraordinary growth in the stock's value over the study period.

In the performance chart, the trend line fitted to y = 0.055x - 30.333, with an R² of 0.963, shows that the linear model explains 96.3% of the price variation which is very high and implies a very strong and consistent upward trend.

The short- and medium-term price forecasts (projections) are also positive: the 90-day forecast is 188.46, the 180-day forecast is 299.83, and the 360-day forecast is 299.73. The mean (79.83) > median (58.84) > mode (11.15). This order relationship between the three measures of central tendency (mean > median > mode) is characteristic of a positively skewed (or right-skewed) distribution, meaning that the price distribution is distorted or asymmetrical with respect to the Gaussian or normal distribution. The tail of the distribution is longer to the right (higher values), which is dominated by the highest price peaks.

In financial terms, positive skewness is often advantageous, as most occurrences are on the left side (lower prices), but extreme values ​​(high prices) pull the mean to the right. Kurtosis, on the other hand, measures the peakedness of a distribution compared to the normal distribution (which has a kurtosis of 0). A kurtosis of -0.535 indicates a platykurtic distribution (more "flattened" than normal and with shorter "tails"). In investing, studying kurtosis is crucial because real-world return data is often leptokurtic (characterized by positive kurtosis, or "fat tails"), meaning that extreme events (large gains or losses) are more likely than the normal distribution predicts. A negative value suggests that extremely high or low price events (the "tails") are less frequent more frequent than would be expected under a normal distribution. This is important for an investor seeking to reduce risk, as it indicates a lower probability of extreme jumps in the stock price.

The profitability chart already shows that the trend lines (linear, 3rd-order polynomial, and 6th-order polynomial) closely track prices. The high polynomial correlation values ​​(especially 96.75%) indicate that a 6th-order econometric model best describes and forecasts the historical price trajectory of AMZN, capturing the fluctuations and growth curves very accurately.

The Amazon (AMZN) histogram with its corresponding frequency polygon (the orange line) shows the price distribution. The shape of the histogram corroborates the positive skew found in the descriptive statistics; most occurrences (the tallest bar in the histogram) fall within the first price interval, 5.43–105.43. The frequency decreases sharply in the higher price ranges (105.43 - 205.43 and 205.43 - 305.43).

The distribution is concentrated on the left (low prices) and has a long tail on the right (high prices), which is the visual signature of a positively skewed distribution, confirming the deviation from the Gaussian bell curve (a normal distribution

n would be symmetrical, with the maximum frequency in the middle).

Based on this statistical and econometric analysis, the evidence suggests a positive investment recommendation, a strong upward trend, a 15-year return of 2571.03%, and very high correlation and R² coefficients (close to 96%), indicating a solid and predictable historical growth trajectory. Projections at 90, 180, and 360 years are also supported The number of days indicates a continued increase in the stock price from the current level.

The positive skewness of the distribution (Mean > Median > Mode) implies that, while the stock has had many days at lower prices, the higher prices have been what have driven the overall performance.

The negative kurtosis suggests that the probability of experiencing large, extreme price shocks (both positive and negative) is lower than expected by the normal model, which can be interpreted as a positive sign of lower tail risk for the investor.

The data suggest that AMZN is in a strong uptrend, with a well-fitting historical growth model and statistical indicators that, although confirming a non-normal distribution, indicate robust and consistent performance.

The technical indicators show a clear "Strong Sell" signal. Most oscillators and momentum indicators (STOCH(9,6), Williams %R, CCI(14), ROC, Bull/Bear Power) are generating sell signals. This contrasts sharply with the long-term upward trend identified in the econometric analysis.

The STOCHRSI(14) shows 7.941, indicating that the asset is oversold. While seven indicators point to selling, the oversold condition suggests that the price may be nearing a temporary bottom before resuming the main trend.

The ADX(14) of 43.855, with a buy signal, is significant, as a value above 25 indicates a strong trend. In this case, the long-term uptrend remains strong, but the oscillators suggest the market is experiencing a short-term pullback or correction within that trend.

The ATR(14) of 1.7242, with lower volatility, suggests that recent price movements have been relatively mild The price remains calm, which may be characteristic of a consolidation phase before it decides on its next major move.

The moving averages (MAs) are neutral (6 Buy, 6 Sell). The short-term MAs (MA5, MA10, MA20) are split between buy and sell, with a sell bias in the simple MAs. This means that the current price ($232.38) is below the very short-term MAs (MA10 and MA20, both simple and exponential), signaling immediate downward pressure.

The long-term MAs (MA50, MA100, MA200) are mostly in buy (4 out of 6), which is crucial, as these averages are better indicators of the underlying long-term trend.

The overall neutrality indicates that the price is moving sideways or consolidating around the major moving averages. This supports the argument for a short-term temporary correction, but not a break in the long-term uptrend.

The assertion that the stock has reached a cumulative probability p of 98.71% and is therefore in a precautionary position is a direct integration of statistical analysis with the concept of risk.

This p-value of 98.71% suggests that the current price ($232.38) is very close to the 99th percentile of the historical price distribution (based on the histogram and distribution curve). Being at such a high percentile indicates that the current price is unusually high in the context of the last 15 years

This fully justifies the "cautionary position." If the price is at 98.71% of the historical data,This means there is little room for similar growth to past levels before a potential downward correction, as the price is approaching historical upper limits.

The previously analyzed negative kurtosis ($-0.535) suggests that, while the price is high, the probability of a catastrophic collapse (negative fat tail) is low, which somewhat tempers caution. Overlaying the technical analysis with the statistical-econometric analysis reveals a time divergence, a strongly bullish trend (2571% return), excellent econometric fit, and positive forecasts.

The market is showing uncertainty and immediate bearish pressure (heavy selling in indicators) because the price is at a historically high level (98.71% according to the cumulative probability).

The investment thesis for AMZN remains positive. The current short-term pullback (technical sell signal) should be viewed as a tactical buying opportunity if the price falls to a key support level.

Short-term investors should exercise caution (neutral/sell). It is advisable to wait for the oversold signal (STOCHRSI) to reverse or for the moving averages to align with a buy signal before entering, or to look for a bounce off the Pivot Point support levels (S1: 231.95, S2: 231.41).

The current price ($232.38) is just above the classic pivot point (232.27), indicating indecision as to whether the market will maintain or reverse the trend.

AMZN is an exceptional long-term growth stock that is currently going through a short-term correction or consolidation, justified by its high historical price.