This study evaluates the historical evolution of Cemargos' operational/economic variables through descriptive statistical analysis and trend adjustments, differentiating three-time horizons to separate cyclical events from structural dynamics.
Underlying Dynamics: The company shows a trajectory of sustained and stable growth in the medium term, representing its typical behavior.
The long term registers a complete boom-bust cycle, while the short term reflects a recent correction. This correction does not correspond to a negative structural change, but rather to an adjustment phase.
High-order polynomial adjustments accurately describe the past. For management decisions, smoothed trends and time-bound analysis are prioritized.
Cemargos maintains operational and market strength, although it requires monitoring of the current slowdown phase and measures to recover the growth rate observed in the intermediate period.
To establish a rigorous diagnosis of the company's evolution, identify trends, critical points, stability, and risks, in order to support management decisions and technical dissemination.
Measures of central tendency, dispersion, distribution shape, and risk-return indicators are used. The linear and polynomial models of degree 6 show the evaluation of the goodness of fit and limitations of each model.
A comparative study by time horizons distinguishes between current conditions and structural factors.
The long-term perspective (5 years) provides a complete historical view with a mean of 7,194.97, affected by both low and high values. The median of 6,400 indicates that half of the records are below this level. The standard deviation of 2,967.3 shows high dispersion, reflecting broad cycles.
The range of 2,740–13,620 shows a wide range of variation throughout the period. The Sharpe ratio of 0.36 indicates a moderate risk-adjusted return.
The linear R² of 65.24% explains only the general direction and ignores significant changes in pace.
The polynomial R² of degree 6, at 99.29%, fits the data almost perfectly, but with a high risk of overfitting, capturing even random variations, not just the actual trend.
Progressive growth to an absolute maximum in the middle of the period, followed by a sharp decline toward the end. This decline is the result of specific events in the final segment, not an irreversible trend in itself.
The medium term (3 years) has a typical structural dynamic; this segment best represents the company's stable operation.
The key medium-term statistics are mean 8,159.3, very close to the median; and median 7,910, without a strong bias toward extreme values. The standard deviation of 2,577.3 indicates less variability than in the long term.
The coefficient of variation of 31% indicates moderate relative volatility, and the Sharpe ratio of 1.3 suggests good risk-adjusted performance. Furthermore, the linear R² of 83.1% accurately describes the underlying trend. The polynomial R² of degree 6, at 92.4%, improves the fit without excess; here, the model is more reliable because the period is more stable.
The continuous and smooth growth, without sharp peaks or drops, confirms that the company's normal dynamics are expansionary; the drop observed at the end of the long period is not typical of its behavior.
The short term, or 180 days/1 year, reflects the recent and current situation, showing immediate details and the most recent changes. The key statistical data observed are the mean 11,642.3, elevated by occasional peaks; the median 11,259, with half of the records lower than the average; and the standard deviation 939.3.
The range is 10,390–13,360, a narrow interval compared to longer timeframes. The Sharpe ratio is -0.9, indicating a return that does not compensate.
Looking at the fit and behavior, the Linear R² of 64.05% does not accurately represent the short-term cycle. The Polynomial R² of degree 6, at 80.37%, is only useful for describing the observed period and is not valid for extrapolation.
The short-term cycle is defined by initial growth, a local peak, and a gradual decline at the end. This is a recent correction or slowdown that should be monitored to confirm whether it is temporary or marks the beginning of a trend reversal.
The structural strength, confirmed in the medium term, is the best indicator for planning. The moderate alert signal, indicating a short-term decline, should be analyzed in conjunction with operational and market data to identify causes and implement timely corrective measures.
It is recommended to use the medium term as a baseline for budgets, goals, and performance evaluations, as it reflects a stable dynamic.
Monitor the short term monthly: establish tracking indicators to see if the slowdown stops or continues; cross-reference this with sales, cost, and industry data in Colombia.
Review the events that triggered the final decline in the long term, identify if they are factors that could recur, and design mitigation measures.
The statistical report warned of a slowdown over the last 180 days (Sharpe of -0.9). The new data numerically explain this behavior.
The ROE (Return on Equity) of 4.2% and the ROA (Return on Assets) of 2.9% are historically low for the materials sector during expansionary phases.
This confirms that, although the company is generating robust revenue ($5.15T), the conversion to net income ($489.2B) is being pressured by current operating and financial costs (reflected in a gross margin of 27.3%).
Current volume (310K) is significantly below its 3-month average (532K).
This drop in market liquidity supports the "gradual pullback" behavior predicted by the short-term polynomial model; there is less buying interest in the immediate range, consolidating the correction phase.
The RSI of 41.76 is in a lower-neutral zone, approaching oversold territory.
This mathematically validates your conclusion that the current decline is not a definitive negative structural change, but rather a healthy adjustment. The price is seeking a technical floor.
The fundamentals strongly support why the 3-year period is the cleanest and most expansive.
The price-to-book (P/BV) ratio, with a multiple of 1.4x and a book value per share of $7,898, indicates that the market is paying a very moderate premium on Cemargos's actual assets.
Considering that the last closing price was $7,300 (even below the book value), the stock is technically "cheap" or undervalued. Furthermore, a dividend of $772.50 (5.3%) is highly competitive. This inflow acts as a "buffer" or financial floor for the long-term share price, attracting institutional investors and pension funds that support the structure during downturns.
Market valuation multiples like the P/E ratio of 28.4x might seem high in isolation, but when compared to an EV/EBITDA of 7.1x, it becomes clear that the core operating business (EBITDA of $1.14T) is extremely healthy and efficiently valued relative to its debt and capitalization.
The Beta of 0.19 is a crucial macroeconomic indicator.
It means that Cemargos is an asset highly uncorrelated with the systematic risk of the overall market (it moves only 19% of the way the benchmark index moves). This justifies the very controlled and positive Sharpe ratio (1.3) that you observed in the medium term.
