ANALYSIS REPORT: ECOPETROL'S PERFORMANCE AND SITUATION

 

Periods analyzed: 180 days, 3 years, and 5 years |

Date: June 2026

Presentation and Objective

This document compiles the statistical and econometric study and structural evaluation of Ecopetrol in order to present the observable reality of its performance, valuation, and market position—without biased interpretations or concealment. It is provided as input for management decision-making.

The first public offering took place in 2007; the historical peak was reached in 2011 and has not been surpassed in the almost 15 years since, despite partial upward cycles.

It is a mixed-ownership company, with the Colombian State effectively controlling approximately 80% of its capital. It is publicly traded, but its main decisions and direction depend primarily on government policy.

This analysis is conducted over three time periods; Over 180 days, or the short term, a general upward trend is observed, but with marked daily volatility.

The average is $2240, the median is $2242, the maximum is $2800, the minimum is $1199, and the standard deviation is high, confirming strong variations. The mathematical fit (cubic or linear function) describes the past trend, but it does not constitute a reliable prediction, as the short term depends on external factors not included in the model.

In the medium term, which in this case was 3 years, a complete cycle is evident, showing an initial drop, stabilization, and gradual recovery. Here, the cubic model fits the shape of the curve better, clearly marking the inflection point where the trend changes.

It shows that recovery is possible, but slow and interrupted, without breaking the historical high. For the long term, a five-year period was considered, revealing the cyclical and volatile nature inherent to the sector, but with a general trend of stagnation relative to the 2011 peak. It is confirmed that growth is neither continuous nor linear, and that the company has experienced prolonged periods of low valuation.

In the international context, in the analyzed activity/investment ranking, Colombia occupies 6th place with 205 units, at an upper-middle level in Latin America (behind only Brazil), but far from the leading financial and energy centers (Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States). This reflects its regional relevance, but also its limited global penetration and attractiveness.

Ecopetrol constitutes the largest source of revenue for the national budget. Mandatory transfers and dividends to the State drastically reduce the resources available for investment, modernization, exploration, and the generation of sustainable value. In practice, it functions more as a public spending instrument than as a company focused exclusively on profitability and shareholders.

 

Strategic decisions, management, and operating rules depend on government cycles. This generates constant uncertainty for investors, who value predictability above all else. Therefore, even in years with high international oil prices, the stock does not recover historical levels: political risk and the limitations on its growth potential are factored in.

The international price of crude oil also plays a role—the 2011 peak coincided with very high global prices that have not remained consistently high—but it is neither the sole nor the primary cause. Other countries and companies in the sector have managed to surpass their all-time highs in similar periods, demonstrating that the problem has local and structural roots.

The reality is clear: the most revealing fact is that since 2011, the stock's peak price has not been surpassed, despite favorable market cycles. Statistical and econometric models show partial recoveries, but not a break from the stagnant trend.

The root cause is not limited to the volatility of global oil prices. The prevailing model of state control has transformed the company into more of a fiscal resource than a competitive energy business. This hinders its agility, reduces its capacity to generate its own wealth, and diminishes its international appeal, as confirmed by its position in the global ranking.

The potential value of its reserves and operational capacity is not reflected in the market because shareholders and investors already factor in the political and fiscal constraints that weigh on the company.

ECOPETROL ANTE EL ESPEJO DEL MERCADO: ANÁLISIS ECONOMÉTRICO, CICLOS DE VALORACIÓN Y DESAFÍOS ESTRUCTURALES»

 

Presentación y Objetivo

Este documento reúne el estudio estadístico, econométrico y la evaluación estructural de Ecopetrol, con el fin de exponer la realidad observable de su desempeño, valoración y posición en el mercado —sin interpretaciones parciales ni ocultamientos. Se entrega como insumo para la toma de decisiones directivas.

La primera emisión pública se realizó en el año 2007; el máximo histórico se alcanzó en 2011 y no ha sido superado en los casi 15 años siguientes, a pesar de ciclos alcistas parciales.

Es una empresa de naturaleza mixta, con control efectivo del Estado colombiano en cerca del 80 % del capital. Cotiza en bolsa, pero sus decisiones principales y su orientación dependen mayoritariamente de la política gubernamental.

Este análisis se realiza en tres temporalidades; en 180 días o corto plazo, se observa una tendencia alcista general, pero con volatilidad diaria marcada.

La media $2240., mediana $2242., máximo $2800., mínimo $1199, desviación estándar elevada, lo que confirma variaciones fuertes. El ajuste matemático (función cúbica o recta) describe la tendencia pasada, pero no constituye una predicción segura, el corto plazo depende de factores externos que no entran en el modelo.

En el mediano plazo que para este caso se tomaron 3 años, se distingue un ciclo completo, mostrando caída inicial, estabilización y recuperación progresiva. Aquí el modelo cúbico se ajusta mejor a la forma de la curva, marcando claramente el punto de inflexión donde cambia la tendencia.

Muestra que la recuperación es posible, pero lenta y con interrupciones, sin llegar a romper el techo histórico.

Para el largo plazo se tomaron 5 años, donde se evidencia la naturaleza cíclica y volátil inherente al sector, pero con una tendencia general estancada respecto al máximo de 2011.

Se confirma que el crecimiento no es continuo ni lineal, y que la empresa ha atravesado fases prolongadas de baja valoración.

La posición en el contexto internacional en el ranking de actividad/inversión analizada, Colombia ocupa el puesto 6.º con 205 u., en nivel intermedio‑alto en Latinoamérica (detrás solo de Brasil), pero muy lejos de los centros financieros y energéticos líderes (Hong Kong, Singapur, Estados Unidos). Esto refleja su relevancia regional, pero también su limitada penetración y atractivo global.

Ecopetrol constituye el mayor ingreso del presupuesto nacional. Las transferencias y dividendos obligatorios al Estado reducen drásticamente los recursos disponibles para inversión, modernización, exploración y generación de valor sostenible. Funciona en la práctica como un instrumento de gasto público, más que como una empresa orientada exclusivamente a la rentabilidad y al accionista.

Las decisiones estratégicas, la dirección y las reglas de operación dependen de los ciclos de gobierno. Esto genera incertidumbre permanente para los inversores, que valoran la previsibilidad por encima de todo. Por eso, incluso en años con buenos precios internacionales del petróleo, la acción no recupera niveles históricos: se descuenta el riesgo político y la limitación de su capacidad de crecimiento.

El precio internacional del crudo también influye —el máximo de 2011 coincidió con precios mundiales muy altos que no se han mantenido igual de forma sostenida—, pero no es la causa única ni principal, otros países y empresas del sector sí han logrado superar sus valores máximos históricos en periodos similares, lo que demuestra que el problema tiene raíces locales y estructurales.

La realidad es clara, el hecho más revelador es que desde 2011 no se ha vuelto a superar el precio máximo de la acción, a pesar de los ciclos favorables del mercado. Los modelos estadísticos y econométricos muestran recuperaciones parciales, pero no una ruptura de la tendencia estancada.

La causa raíz no se limita solo a la volatilidad del petróleo mundial. El modelo de control estatal predominante ha convertido a la empresa en un recurso fiscal más que en un negocio energético competitivo. Esto le quita agilidad, reduce su capacidad de generar riqueza propia y le resta atractivo internacional, como confirma su posición en el ranking global.

El valor que podría tener por sus reservas y capacidad operativa no se refleja en el mercado, porque el accionista y el inversor descuentan de antemano las limitaciones políticas y fiscales que pesan sobre la compañía.

NUBANK: BEARISH EXHAUSTION AND POTENTIAL REBOUND

The observations over the short term (180 days) can be summarized as follows: a persistent downtrend. While the adjustment line and daily price action continue to point downwards, projecting only this trend without further nuances would lead to much lower levels. However, the statistical model alone does not capture market limits or the strength of the business; it merely repeats what has already happened and does not anticipate when the decline will exhaust itself.

The downtrend signals are losing strength. The price is very close to the 52-week low of 40,100, an area that acts as a strong, natural support level.

Volatility has halved compared to the long term, and there are no longer any sharp movements, which usually means that sellers have already covered a large portion of their positions.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36, very close to oversold territory. Statistically, this makes it unlikely that the decline will continue unabated and increases the possibility of a rebound or consolidation. Volume hasn't increased during the recent declines. Without strong volume, the downtrend loses credibility and duration.

The support and recovery view is the most accurate. It's not just about numbers, but about real fundamentals; this is what differentiates a temporary adjustment from a definitive collapse.

Nubank continues to expand in Latin America, gaining customers and reducing costs compared to traditional banks. It's not a mature or stagnant company; it has growth potential ahead.

The return on equity is 30% (very high for the sector), the P/E ratio is moderate at 19, and there are no signs of bankruptcy or structural losses. The decline is more due to expectations of high interest rates and general market distrust than to internal failures.

The digital model, without cumbersome branches and with a focus on financial inclusion, gives it a competitive advantage that remains, even if the price falls. The company's value doesn't disappear just because the share price drops. In the short term (next days/weeks), further sharp declines are unlikely. The price will likely move near the support zone between 40,000 and 43,000, and may even test the low without a sustained break. If it holds this level, the first move will be a rebound or pullback towards the nearby resistance zone of 47,000-48,000, which was the previous close.

In the medium to long term (aligned with this study conducted since June 2022), the forecast gains more weight if macroeconomic conditions stabilize and the company continues to meet its expansion and profitability goals. In this scenario, the current downward trend will reverse, and much higher levels will be recovered.

The adjustment observed in recent years functions as a significant correction within the growth cycle of a young company, not as the end of its story. The mechanical projection of continuing the current downward trend is misleading because it ignores the established technical support and the strength of the business. A more comprehensive view is that we are reaching a bottoming zone where the risk-reward ratio shifts dramatically. Nu Holdings' innovation, expansion, and market position are the pillars that will ensure that, once selling pressure subsides, the price returns to reflect its true value and trends upward.

 

NUBANK: AGOTAMIENTO BAJISTA Y POTENCIAL DE REBOTE

 Lo observado en el corto plazo 180 días se resume de la siguiente manera tendencia bajista persistente, es cierto que la línea de ajuste y el comportamiento diario siguen marcando dirección hacia abajo, y si se proyectara solo esa tendencia sin más matices, se llegarían a niveles mucho menores. Pero el modelo estadístico por sí solo no capta los límites del mercado ni la fortaleza del negocio, solo repite lo que ya pasó, no anticipa cuándo se agota la caída.

Las señales de caída están perdiendo fuerza, el precio está muy cerca del mínimo de 52 semanas 40.100, zona que actúa como soporte natural y fuerte.

La volatilidad se redujo a la mitad respecto al largo plazo, ya no hay movimientos bruscos, lo que suele significar que los vendedores ya han cubierto gran parte de sus posiciones.

El indice de fuerza relativa está en 36, muy cerca de sobreventa. estadísticamente esto hace que sea poco probable que la caída siga sin pausa, y aumenta la posibilidad de rebote o consolidación.

El volumen no ha crecido en las últimas bajadas, sin volumen fuerte, la tendencia bajista pierde credibilidad y duración.

La visión del soporte y recuperación es la más acertada, no se trata solo de números, sino de fundamento real, esto es lo que diferencia un ajuste temporal de un colapso definitivo.

Nubank sigue expandiéndose en Latinoamérica, ganando clientes y reduciendo costos respecto a la banca tradicional. No es una empresa madura o estancada; tiene recorrido de crecimiento por delante.

El rendimiento del capital del 30 % (muy alto para el sector), PER moderado de19 y sin señales de quiebra o pérdidas estructurales. La caída responde más a expectativas de tasas de interés altas y desconfianza general del mercado que a fallos internos.

El modelo digital, sin sucursales pesadas y con foco en inclusión financiera, le da ventaja competitiva que se mantiene, aunque el precio baje. El valor de la empresa no desaparece solo porque la cotización caiga.

En el corto plazo (próximos días/semanas), es probable que ya no haya caídas profundas, se moverá cerca de la zona de soporte entre 40.000 y 43.000, incluso puede probar el mínimo sin romperlo de forma sostenida. Si aguanta este nivel, el primer movimiento será el rebote o pullback hacia la zona de resistencia cercana 47.000‑48.000, que fue el cierre anterior.

En el mediano‑largo plazo (alineado con este estudio realizado desde junio 2022), se puede deducir que el pronóstico gana más peso si se estabilizan las condiciones macroeconómicas y la empresa sigue cumpliendo sus metas de expansión y rentabilidad, la tendencia bajista actual se revertirá y se recuperarán niveles mucho más altos.

El ajuste que se observa en estos años funciona como una corrección fuerte, dentro del ciclo de    crecimiento de una empresa joven, no como el final de su historia.

La proyección mecánica de seguir la tendencia bajista actual es engañosa porque ignora el soporte técnico alcanzado y la solidez del negocio. La visión más completa es que estamos llegando a una zona de suelo donde la relación riesgo‑beneficio cambia totalmente. La innovación, expansión y posición de mercado de Nu Holdings son el pilar que hará que, una vez agotada la presión vendedora, el precio vuelva a reflejar su valor real y tienda al alza.

POLYNOMIAL MODELING OF CYCLES AND RISK-RETURN EFFICIENCY DIAGNOSIS

 

This study employs a multi-model approach, as it not only addresses the topic with simple linear regression but also applies polynomial models (of varying degrees), allowing it to capture trend changes, cycles, or nonlinear behaviors that a linear regression completely ignores.

The inclusion of the Sharpe Ratio and the Coefficient of Variation (CV) demonstrates that the study aims not only to predict value but also to understand the volatility and efficiency of the asset or variable under study.

By separating the sample into three different sizes—long-term with 1221 days of observations, medium-term with 730 days, and short-term with 180 days—the dynamics of each time frame can be observed.

In the long term, using the complete five-year historical analysis, a very weak least-squares trend line is observed (R² = 53.81%). However, the higher-degree polynomial model achieves an impressive R² of 95.09%. This indicates that CIBEST's historical behavior is strongly marked by complex cycles or oscillations.

The histogram and the Skewness (Asymmetry = 1.54) and Kurtosis (1.41) data show a clear positive skew. The data is concentrated at low values ​​(the peak is between 26,080 and 36,079) with a long tail to the right.

The Sharpe ratio of 2.20 is excellent, indicating a high return for each unit of risk assumed over this overall period.

In the medium term, using 730 days as the Intermediate Period, the linear trend becomes stronger (R² = 85.13%), and the polynomial rises to 97.13%. The series became much more predictable and uniform in this segment.

The Coefficient of Variation rises slightly (36.74%), and the Sharpe ratio falls to 1.45. This remains acceptable, but less efficient than in the overall picture.

In the short term (180 days, or recent period), the straight line fails spectacularly again in this shorter range (R² = 50.58%). Recent behavior is erratic or highly cyclical, requiring the polynomial (R² = 88.46%) for interpretation.

The change in behavior shows that the mean jumped to 74,824, a value drastically higher than the previous blocks (43,192 and 48,039). CIBEST has experienced massive growth recently, but with negative skewness (-0.15), suggesting that it is moving at the upper end of the distribution, with occasional sharp drops.

The exceptional long-term return of 193.94%, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 35.05% and a standard deviation of 15,137.86, demonstrates a high level of efficiency in the Sharpe ratio of 2.20.

This period (representing the largest or historical sample) shows an extraordinary cumulative return of almost 194%. The most noteworthy aspect from a financial perspective is its Sharpe ratio of 2.20, which is considered excellent. This demonstrates that the asset generated a highly robust return for each unit of volatility assumed. Despite a considerable standard deviation, the consistency of the upward trend (captured in previous polynomial models) more than compensated for the risk.

Over the medium term (730 days), maturation and increased volatility are observed, with a return of 160.82%, a coefficient of variation (CV) of 36.74%, a standard deviation of 17,647.31, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.45. In this intermediate time frame, the return remains very high (160.82%). However, a structural change is observed: risk increased, and efficiency decreased. The standard deviation rises to 17,647.31, and the coefficient of variation increases slightly to 36.74%, meaning the asset became more volatile relative to its mean (48,039). As a direct consequence, the Sharpe ratio falls to 1.45. This remains an institutionally attractive performance (greater than 1.0), but it denotes a more turbulent market environment or one with more pronounced corrections.

This is still an institutionally attractive performance (greater than 1.0), but it indicates a more turbulent market environment or one with more pronounced corrections. Finally, in the short term (180 days) or recent phase of stabilization or commercial maturity, the return is 32.12%, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 12.25% and a standard deviation of 9,166.91. The Sharpe ratio of 1.80 indicates good efficiency for CIBEST.

The shortest period (180 observations) shows a return of 32.12%. Although nominally lower compared to longer-term horizons, the underlying statistical behavior is extremely interesting. The coefficient of variation drops drastically to 12.25%, indicating that prices have compacted strongly around their new level The average price is high (74,824). Price dispersion decreased significantly.

With the reduction in volatility or standard deviation from 9,166.91, the Sharpe ratio rebounded to 1.80. This indicates that, in the recent short term, CIBEST is a much more predictable, safe, and efficient asset per unit of risk than in the medium term, moving within a plateau of high prices with controlled fluctuations.

The shift from the medium-term period to the short-term period reflects an asset that has moved from a phase of high volatility and aggressive growth to a stage of consolidation. The decrease in the coefficient of variation (CV) from 36.74% to 12.25% is a key technical indicator of stability in the recent period.

If historical consistency is assessed, the overall (long-term) scenario continues to show the best general efficiency metrics (Sharpe 2.20), suggesting that CIBEST has historically rewarded retention strategies or long-term analyses (Buy and Hold or structural investments), while intermediate periods experienced turbulence that temporarily affected the risk-premium relationship.

The graphs show polynomial equations of up to the 6th degree. Although mathematically an R² of 95% or 97% looks spectacular in the snapshot of the past, polynomials of such high degrees suffer from a serious prediction error at the extremes. If you use that 6th-degree equation to "forecast" tomorrow (data point 1222), the curve tends to spike unrealistically up or down.

The study is an excellent descriptive diagnosis of CIBEST's past performance. It clearly demonstrates that the variable is not linear and that it has recently gone through a period of strong short-term appreciation.

MODELACIÓN POLINÓMICA DE CICLOS Y DIAGNÓSTICO DE EFICIENCIA RIESGO-RETORNO

 El enfoque dado a este estudio es multimodelo, ya que no solo trató el tema con una regresión lineal simple, sino que aplica, modelos polinómicos (de diferentes grados) permitiendo capturar cambios de tendencia, ciclos o comportamientos no lineales que la recta ignora por completo.

La inclusión del Ratio de Sharpe y el Coeficiente de Variación (CV) demuestra que el estudio no solo busca predecir el valor, sino entender la volatilidad y la eficiencia del activo o variable estudiada.

Al separar la muestra en tres tamaños diferentes como el largo plazo con1221dias de  observaciones frente a 730 días de mediano plazo y corto plazo de 180, se puede observar cómo cambian las dinámicas en las tres temporalidades

En el largo plazo realizando el estudio histórico completo de cinco años, se observa la línea de tendencia mínimo cuadrática muy deficiente con R2 = 53.81%). Sin embargo, el modelo polinómico de grado superior alcanza un impresionante R2 = 95.09%. Esto significa que el comportamiento histórico de CIBEST está fuertemente marcado por ciclos u ondulaciones complejas.

El histograma y los datos de Skewness (Asimetría = 1.54) y Kurtosis (1.41) muestran una clara asimetría positiva. Los datos se concentran en valores bajos (el pico está entre 26,080 y 36,079) con una cola larga hacia la derecha.

El indice de Sharpe de 2.20 es excelente, indicando un gran retorno por cada unidad de riesgo asumida en este período global.

En el mediano plazo se toman 730 días como  Período Intermedio, aquí la tendencia lineal cobra más fuerza (R2 = 85.13%), y el polinomio se eleva al 97.13%. La serie se volvió mucho más predecible y uniforme en este tramo.

El Coeficiente de Variación sube un poco (36.74%) y el ratio de Sharpe cae a 1.45. Sigue siendo un rendimiento aceptable, pero menos eficiente que en el panorama global.

En el corto plazo 180 días o período reciente, en este tramo más corto, la línea recta vuelve a fallar estrepitosamente (R2 = 50.58%). El comportamiento reciente es errático o muy cíclico, requiriendo el polinomio (R2 = 88.46%) para entenderlo.

El cambio de comportamiento muestra que la media saltó a 74,824, un valor drásticamente superior a los bloques anteriores (43,192 y 48,039). CIBEST ha experimentado un crecimiento masivo recientemente, pero con una asimetría negativa (-0.15), lo que sugiere que se está moviendo en la parte alta de la distribución, con caídas abruptas ocasionales.

El rendimiento excepcional de largo plazo 193.94% con un coeficiente de variación (CV) de 35.05% y Desviación Estándar de 15,137.86.mostrando un buen nivel de eficiencia en el ratio de Sharpe 2.20

Este período (que representa la muestra más amplia o histórica) muestra una rentabilidad acumulada extraordinaria de casi el 194%. Lo más destacable desde la perspectiva financiera es su Ratio de Sharpe de 2.20, el cual es considerado excelente. Esto demuestra que el activo generó un retorno sumamente robusto por cada unidad de volatilidad asumida. A pesar de una desviación estándar considerable, la consistencia de la tendencia al alza (capturada en los modelos polinómicos previos) compensó con creces el riesgo.

En el mediano plazo 730 días se observa maduración y mayor volatilidad, con una rentabilidad de 160.82%, el coeficiente de variación (CV) de 36.74%, desviación estándar de 17,647.31y la medida de eficiencia con el ratio de Sharpe de 1.45. En esta ventana temporal intermedia, el rendimiento sigue siendo muy elevado (160.82%). Sin embargo, se observa un cambio estructural, el riesgo aumentó y la eficiencia disminuyó. La desviación estándar sube a 17,647.31 y el coeficiente de variación se eleva ligeramente a 36.74%, lo que significa que el activo se volvió más volátil en relación con su media (48,039). Como consecuencia directa, la ratio de Sharpe cae a 1.45. Sigue siendo un desempeño institucionalmente atractivo (mayor a 1.0), pero denota un entorno de mercado más agitado o con correcciones más marcadas.

Finalmente, en el corto plazo 180 días o fase reciente de estabilización o madurez comercial muestra una rentabilidad: 32.12%, un coeficiente de variación (CV) de 12.25% y desviación estándar de 9,166.91y por último la ratio de Sharpe 1.80 enseña una buena eficiencia de CIBEST.

El período más corto (180 observaciones) muestra una rentabilidad del 32.12%. Aunque nominalmente parece menor en comparación con los horizontes de largo plazo, el comportamiento estadístico subyacente es sumamente interesante, el coeficiente de variación cae drásticamente al 12.25%, lo que indica que los precios se han compactado fuertemente alrededor de su nueva media alta (74,824). La dispersión del precio disminuyó de forma notable.

Al reducirse la volatilidad o desviación estándar de 9,166.91, el ratio de Sharpe vuelve a repuntar a 1.80. Esto significa que, en el corto plazo reciente, CIBEST es un activo mucho más predecible, seguro y eficiente por unidad de riesgo que en el período intermedio, moviéndose en una meseta de precios elevados con fluctuaciones controladas.

El paso del Período de mediano plazo a  al Período de corto plazo refleja un activo que pasó de una fase de alta volatilidad y crecimiento agresivo a una etapa de consolidación. El paso de un CV de 36.74% a un 12.25% es un indicador técnico clave de estabilidad en el tramo reciente.

Si se evalúa la consistencia histórica, el escenario global (largo plazo) sigue mostrando las mejores métricas de eficiencia general (Sharpe 2.20), lo que sugiere que CIBEST ha premiado históricamente a las estrategias de retención o análisis de horizontes amplios (Buy and Hold o inversiones estructurales), mientras que los tramos intermedios sufrieron turbulencias que afectaron temporalmente la relación prima-riesgo.

En los gráficos se observan ecuaciones polinómicas de hasta 6to grado. Aunque matemáticamente un R2 de 95% o 97% se ve espectacular en la foto del pasado, los polinomios de grados tan altos sufren de un error grave de predicción en los extremos. Si usas esa ecuación de 6to grado para "pronosticar" el día de mañana (el dato 1222), la curva tiende a dispararse hacia arriba o hacia abajo de forma irreal. 

El estudio es un excelente diagnóstico descriptivo del pasado de CIBEST. Demuestra con claridad que la variable no es lineal y que ha pasado por una etapa reciente de fuerte apreciación el corto plazo.

CEMARGOS COMPREHENSIVE REPORT: STATISTICAL-ECONOMETRIC AND FUNDAMENTAL DIAGNOSIS BY TIME HORIZON

 

This study evaluates the historical evolution of Cemargos' operational/economic variables through descriptive statistical analysis and trend adjustments, differentiating three-time horizons to separate cyclical events from structural dynamics.

Underlying Dynamics: The company shows a trajectory of sustained and stable growth in the medium term, representing its typical behavior.

The long term registers a complete boom-bust cycle, while the short term reflects a recent correction. This correction does not correspond to a negative structural change, but rather to an adjustment phase.

High-order polynomial adjustments accurately describe the past. For management decisions, smoothed trends and time-bound analysis are prioritized.

Cemargos maintains operational and market strength, although it requires monitoring of the current slowdown phase and measures to recover the growth rate observed in the intermediate period.

To establish a rigorous diagnosis of the company's evolution, identify trends, critical points, stability, and risks, in order to support management decisions and technical dissemination.

Measures of central tendency, dispersion, distribution shape, and risk-return indicators are used. The linear and polynomial models of degree 6 show the evaluation of the goodness of fit and limitations of each model.

A comparative study by time horizons distinguishes between current conditions and structural factors.

The long-term perspective (5 years) provides a complete historical view with a mean of 7,194.97, affected by both low and high values. The median of 6,400 indicates that half of the records are below this level. The standard deviation of 2,967.3 shows high dispersion, reflecting broad cycles.

The range of 2,740–13,620 shows a wide range of variation throughout the period. The Sharpe ratio of 0.36 indicates a moderate risk-adjusted return.

The linear R² of 65.24% explains only the general direction and ignores significant changes in pace.

The polynomial R² of degree 6, at 99.29%, fits the data almost perfectly, but with a high risk of overfitting, capturing even random variations, not just the actual trend.

Progressive growth to an absolute maximum in the middle of the period, followed by a sharp decline toward the end. This decline is the result of specific events in the final segment, not an irreversible trend in itself.

The medium term (3 years) has a typical structural dynamic; this segment best represents the company's stable operation.

The key medium-term statistics are mean 8,159.3, very close to the median; and median 7,910, without a strong bias toward extreme values. The standard deviation of 2,577.3 indicates less variability than in the long term.

The coefficient of variation of 31% indicates moderate relative volatility, and the Sharpe ratio of 1.3 suggests good risk-adjusted performance. Furthermore, the linear R² of 83.1% accurately describes the underlying trend. The polynomial R² of degree 6, at 92.4%, improves the fit without excess; here, the model is more reliable because the period is more stable.

The continuous and smooth growth, without sharp peaks or drops, confirms that the company's normal dynamics are expansionary; the drop observed at the end of the long period is not typical of its behavior.

The short term, or 180 days/1 year, reflects the recent and current situation, showing immediate details and the most recent changes. The key statistical data observed are the mean 11,642.3, elevated by occasional peaks; the median 11,259, with half of the records lower than the average; and the standard deviation 939.3.

The range is 10,390–13,360, a narrow interval compared to longer timeframes. The Sharpe ratio is -0.9, indicating a return that does not compensate.

Looking at the fit and behavior, the Linear R² of 64.05% does not accurately represent the short-term cycle. The Polynomial R² of degree 6, at 80.37%, is only useful for describing the observed period and is not valid for extrapolation.

The short-term cycle is defined by initial growth, a local peak, and a gradual decline at the end. This is a recent correction or slowdown that should be monitored to confirm whether it is temporary or marks the beginning of a trend reversal.

The structural strength, confirmed in the medium term, is the best indicator for planning. The moderate alert signal, indicating a short-term decline, should be analyzed in conjunction with operational and market data to identify causes and implement timely corrective measures.

It is recommended to use the medium term as a baseline for budgets, goals, and performance evaluations, as it reflects a stable dynamic.

Monitor the short term monthly: establish tracking indicators to see if the slowdown stops or continues; cross-reference this with sales, cost, and industry data in Colombia.

Review the events that triggered the final decline in the long term, identify if they are factors that could recur, and design mitigation measures.

The statistical report warned of a slowdown over the last 180 days (Sharpe of -0.9). The new data numerically explain this behavior.

The ROE (Return on Equity) of 4.2% and the ROA (Return on Assets) of 2.9% are historically low for the materials sector during expansionary phases. 

This confirms that, although the company is generating robust revenue ($5.15T), the conversion to net income ($489.2B) is being pressured by current operating and financial costs (reflected in a gross margin of 27.3%).

Current volume (310K) is significantly below its 3-month average (532K). 

This drop in market liquidity supports the "gradual pullback" behavior predicted by the short-term polynomial model; there is less buying interest in the immediate range, consolidating the correction phase.

The RSI of 41.76 is in a lower-neutral zone, approaching oversold territory. 

This mathematically validates your conclusion that the current decline is not a definitive negative structural change, but rather a healthy adjustment. The price is seeking a technical floor.

The fundamentals strongly support why the 3-year period is the cleanest and most expansive.

The price-to-book (P/BV) ratio, with a multiple of 1.4x and a book value per share of $7,898, indicates that the market is paying a very moderate premium on Cemargos's actual assets. 

Considering that the last closing price was $7,300 (even below the book value), the stock is technically "cheap" or undervalued. Furthermore, a dividend of $772.50 (5.3%) is highly competitive. This inflow acts as a "buffer" or financial floor for the long-term share price, attracting institutional investors and pension funds that support the structure during downturns.

Market valuation multiples like the P/E ratio of 28.4x might seem high in isolation, but when compared to an EV/EBITDA of 7.1x, it becomes clear that the core operating business (EBITDA of $1.14T) is extremely healthy and efficiently valued relative to its debt and capitalization.

The Beta of 0.19 is a crucial macroeconomic indicator. 

It means that Cemargos is an asset highly uncorrelated with the systematic risk of the overall market (it moves only 19% of the way the benchmark index moves). This justifies the very controlled and positive Sharpe ratio (1.3) that you observed in the medium term.