BASF (BAS)

BASF is a chemical company. It was founded in the middle of 1865 in the city of Ludwigshafen, Rhineland-Palatinate, by Friedrich Engelhorn to produce inks. It is the largest chemical company in the world, surpassing Dow Chemical Company and DuPont. BASF increased its sales by 11.1%, up to 87,300 million euros in 2022

Its main factory, still located in the city of origin of the company (Ludwigshafen), has become the largest integrated chemical enclosure in the world, with a surface area of ​​10 square kilometers. The production center comprises 2,000 buildings, 115 kilometers of streets, and approximately 211 kilometers of railways, where more than 39,000 employees are employed.

The study of BASF began on January 4, 2010, and continued until June 18, 2025. During this period, the long-term profitability was negative at -5.86%. With a mean of 63.60, a median of 64.44, and a mode of 66.66.

                                        

The difference between these position statistics shows a rightward skew and a flatter-than-normal kurtosis.

The chart analysis shows a downward trend with a negative slope. The equation of the least squares line is Y = -0.0042x + 71.882, and the coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.1058. This is low, suggesting that the linear model explains only a small portion of price variability, indicating the presence of other factors and non-purely linear behavior. In addition, two polynomial trend curves were plotted to establish the duration of market cycles. To do this, a green 6th-order polynomial was drawn, which explains 71.63%. Often, when plotting the 6th-order polynomial, it is greatly influenced by small variations due to its sensitivity. To avoid this, we draw a 3rd order polynomial that presents a more moderate behavior, giving an R2 = 69.74%.

                                        

The cycle has a duration of 3.9 years in the prosperity phase. The deformation coefficient of 0.1994 is positive, indicating a rightward deformation. The difference between resistance and support is 58.82, implying a considerable range of fluctuations for the stock price over the long term. The cumulative probability p = 7.15%, which in the context of support and resistance could indicate low confidence in the persistence of certain price levels or intrinsic weakness in the recovery from lows. This shows little confidence because the cumulative probability shows a low value.

The forecast for the next half year is €54.34, which is significantly below the historical average for the period, reinforcing the expectation of a continuation of the downward trend.

In the medium term, the BASF study began on March 3, 2021, and runs through June 18, 2025. Over this period of the last three years, the long-term profitability achieved was negative at -40.85%, with a mean of 50.85, a median of 47.44, and a mode of 67.08, similar to the long term, but now further from the mean and median, suggesting that high prices are less frequent during this period. The difference between these statistics continues to show a right skew, and the kurtosis is flatter than the normal (platykurtic), indicating a distribution with lighter tails, albeit with a steeper decline in average prices. The difference between these position statistics shows a right skew and a flatter kurtosis than the normal.

                                       

The downward trend with a negative slope is more pronounced, with an equation of the least squares line Y = − 0.0213 x + 62.63. The R2 = 0.5552 is significantly higher than in the long run, indicating that the linear trend explains a greater proportion of price variability in this more recent period. In addition, two polynomial trend curves were drawn to establish the duration of the market cycles. To do this, a green 6th-order polynomial was drawn that explains 83.36%. On many occasions, when the 6th order polynomial is drawn, it is greatly influenced by small variations due to its sensitivity; to avoid this, we drew a 3rd order polynomial that exhibits moderate behavior, giving an R2 = 80.31%. The prosperity phase of the cycle is shorter, lasting 1.54 years. This suggests faster or less sustainable market cycles in this recent period.

The distortion coefficient of 0.9989 is positive, indicating a rightward distortion. The difference between resistance and support is 33.76. This range of fluctuations is narrower than in the long term, which could indicate lower absolute volatility in this recent period, but within a downtrend. The cumulative probability p = 16.34% remains low, suggesting low confidence in the recovery or stability at low levels, indicating low confidence.

                                            

The forecast for the next quarter is €37.38, reinforcing the expectation of a continued decline and well below the average for the period.

In the short term, the BASF study ran from September 27, 2024, to June 18, 2025. Over this period, the short-term profitability achieved was negative by -12.84%, with a mean of €45.24, a median of €44.60, and a mode of €42.42. Over this period, the mode is lower than the mean and median, which, together with the difference between the statistics, indicates a right skew. The kurtosis is steeper than the normal (leptokurtic) kurtosis, suggesting that, despite the downward trend, there has been a higher frequency of more extreme price movements (positive or negative) compared to a normal distribution.

The linear downward trend is less pronounced, with the equation Y = − 0.0072 x + 45.945. The R2 = 0.0164 is extremely low, indicating that linear regression explains a negligible proportion of the short-term variability in the stock price. This suggests that short-term price movement is highly erratic or dominated by noise, and a simple linear trend is not adequate. Two polynomial trend curves were also plotted to establish the duration of market cycles. To do this, a 6th-order polynomial, colored green, was plotted, explaining 64.35%. Often, when plotting the 6-point polynomial, it is heavily influenced by small variations, which is called overfitting due to its sensitivity to extreme values. To avoid this, we plot a 3rd-order polynomial, which exhibits moderate behavior, giving an R2 = 34.60%. The prosperity phase of the cycle is very short, 58 days, which underscores the rapid reversal or lack of sustainability of short-term bullish movements.

                                       

The distortion coefficient of 0.8361 is positive, indicating that the distortion is to the right. The difference between resistance and support is 14.83. The cumulative probability p = 15.81% shows little confidence, because the cumulative probability shows a low value.

The forecast for the next half year is €43.65, also below the period average, confirming the expectation of continued downward pressure.

BASF's stock performance exhibits a clear and sustained downward trend across all time horizons, with an acceleration in the average price decline and negative returns in the medium term.

The consistent decline in the mean and median price as the time horizon shortens, from €63.60 in the long term to €45.24 in the short term, is an unequivocal sign of a structural deterioration in market perception of BASF. The negative returns across all periods, especially the -40.85% in the medium term, highlight a prolonged and significant bearish phase.

                                           

The standard deviation decreases from the long to the medium term, from 14.69 to 9.04, which could indicate a consolidation phase or price stagnation within the downtrend. However, the leptokurtic kurtosis in the short term suggests that, while the range may be narrower, sudden (extreme) movements are more likely. The range between resistance and support has also narrowed in the short term, reflecting a smaller range of movement.

The trend has remained at similar levels in the long and medium term, around €66-€67, but it is notable that in the short term, €42.42 has become more aligned with current prices. This could indicate that previously "frequent" price levels are now resistance points, and that current prices are consolidating in a lower range. The positive right skew in the price distribution across all periods suggests that, although prices have declined, the distribution has a longer tail toward higher prices, which could reflect occasional rebound spikes that are not sustained.

Forecasts for the next half year are consistently below the respective means for each period: €54.34 for LP, €37.38 for MP, and €43.65 for CP, indicating a widespread expectation of continued deterioration or at least a downward trend.

The lower volatility in the medium term and the narrow range in the short term, combined with bearish forecasts, may suggest that the market has already priced in much of the bad news but lacks clear catalysts for a reversal.

The low R2 values ​​in the linear regression for the long and short terms, 0.1058 and 0.0164 respectively, indicate that the linear trend is a poor predictor of price behavior. Polynomial trends, especially the third-order trend with higher R2 values ​​of 70-80% in the long-term/long-term, are more effective at capturing cycles, but even so, a short-term R2 of 34.60% for the third-order polynomial suggests high unpredictability.

For a complete understanding of BASF's downward trend, it is crucial to complement this quantitative analysis with a qualitative study of external and fundamental factors:

As an energy-intensive chemical company, BASF is highly vulnerable to volatile energy prices, especially natural gas, in Europe. The high inflation environment and rising global interest rates can affect chemical demand, financing costs, and the purchasing power of end consumers. A global or regional economic slowdown directly impacts chemical demand in various industries (automotive, construction, consumer goods).

Decarbonization and sustainability policies in the EU can impose significant costs on BASF in terms of investments in new technologies and regulatory compliance.

Carbon taxes and emission permits directly affect the cost structure.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts the supply of energy and raw materials, and strains global supply chains. International trade policy has generated potential tariff barriers or trade disputes affecting BASF's exports. Global overcapacity is leading the chemical industry to suffer from overcapacity, which puts pressure on prices and margins. Quantitative analysis of BASF's historical stock performance reveals a clear and sustained downward trend across all time horizons, with negative returns and forecasts suggesting a continuation of this downward pressure. Low confidence in support levels and the erratic nature of short-term price movements, evidenced by the low R2 of linear regressions, complicate the identification of inflection points.