NUBANK: BEARISH EXHAUSTION AND POTENTIAL REBOUND

The observations over the short term (180 days) can be summarized as follows: a persistent downtrend. While the adjustment line and daily price action continue to point downwards, projecting only this trend without further nuances would lead to much lower levels. However, the statistical model alone does not capture market limits or the strength of the business; it merely repeats what has already happened and does not anticipate when the decline will exhaust itself.

The downtrend signals are losing strength. The price is very close to the 52-week low of 40,100, an area that acts as a strong, natural support level.

Volatility has halved compared to the long term, and there are no longer any sharp movements, which usually means that sellers have already covered a large portion of their positions.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36, very close to oversold territory. Statistically, this makes it unlikely that the decline will continue unabated and increases the possibility of a rebound or consolidation. Volume hasn't increased during the recent declines. Without strong volume, the downtrend loses credibility and duration.

The support and recovery view is the most accurate. It's not just about numbers, but about real fundamentals; this is what differentiates a temporary adjustment from a definitive collapse.

Nubank continues to expand in Latin America, gaining customers and reducing costs compared to traditional banks. It's not a mature or stagnant company; it has growth potential ahead.

The return on equity is 30% (very high for the sector), the P/E ratio is moderate at 19, and there are no signs of bankruptcy or structural losses. The decline is more due to expectations of high interest rates and general market distrust than to internal failures.

The digital model, without cumbersome branches and with a focus on financial inclusion, gives it a competitive advantage that remains, even if the price falls. The company's value doesn't disappear just because the share price drops. In the short term (next days/weeks), further sharp declines are unlikely. The price will likely move near the support zone between 40,000 and 43,000, and may even test the low without a sustained break. If it holds this level, the first move will be a rebound or pullback towards the nearby resistance zone of 47,000-48,000, which was the previous close.

In the medium to long term (aligned with this study conducted since June 2022), the forecast gains more weight if macroeconomic conditions stabilize and the company continues to meet its expansion and profitability goals. In this scenario, the current downward trend will reverse, and much higher levels will be recovered.

The adjustment observed in recent years functions as a significant correction within the growth cycle of a young company, not as the end of its story. The mechanical projection of continuing the current downward trend is misleading because it ignores the established technical support and the strength of the business. A more comprehensive view is that we are reaching a bottoming zone where the risk-reward ratio shifts dramatically. Nu Holdings' innovation, expansion, and market position are the pillars that will ensure that, once selling pressure subsides, the price returns to reflect its true value and trends upward.