HO CHI MINH CITY DEVELOPMENT.- LONG-TERM STABILITY VS. TRANSIENT VOLATILITY

 

Statistical-econometric and financial analysis: Ho Chi Minh City Development

Date: June 2026 |

Scope: Short, medium, and long term |

Sources: Internal study +

1. STUDY OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the historical performance, risk profile, fundamental strength, and return-generating capacity of the entity, disaggregating the analysis by time horizons.

The aim is to provide clear, reliable, and useful information for investment and management decision-making.

2. MAIN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The entity exhibits marked fluctuations in the short and medium term, creating the appearance of high volatility;

However, its financial fundamentals and statistical analysis confirm that it is not a structural risk; its relative risk is lower than that of the general market, it generates moderate but sustainable positive returns, it shows maximum stability and predictability in the long term, it has a reasonable valuation without overpricing, and it is a suitable asset for long-term investment strategies where security and continuity of results are priorities.

According to the time horizon analysis (statistical), it is observed that in the short term there is high dispersion and volatility (standard deviation of 5,795.53), a wide range of variation, and values ​​that change rapidly,

presenting greater uncertainty and less precision in immediate projections.

The average return remains positive, but it is exposed to temporary deviations.

The annual price range (16,655 – 30,000) confirms these typical short-term fluctuations. In the medium term, some variability persists (standard deviation 6,308.11), although the structural trend begins to emerge and extreme, sharp movements decrease.

During this transition phase, the econometric model gains reliability, and the relationship between the mean and median begins to stabilize.

It bridges the gap between immediate instability and long-term stability.

In the long term, it exhibits remarkable stability; the standard deviation drops sharply to 1,807.14, the range of variation narrows, and the data becomes highly concentrated.

The model fit is the most reliable in the entire study. This confirms the company's true strength, sustained positive performance, low uncertainty, and high predictability. The entity's structure is solid and shows no signs of deterioration.

The fundamental indicators confirm and complement the statistical conclusions. The beta (0.43) is less than 1, indicating relatively low risk. It fluctuates less than the overall market; what appears to be high volatility is simply its natural behavior, not greater risk than the average.

The P/E ratio of 7.0x is very moderate; the stock is not overvalued, and its price is fairly proportionate to its historical and projected earnings.

The return on equity of 24.5% is high and stable, demonstrating a real capacity to generate profits on its own resources, supporting the sustainability of the return.

The price-to-book ratio of 1.6x is prudent; there is no excessive premium, and the price has solid support in the company's real assets. Market capitalization of 127,131 indicates a large, consolidated entity with a lower risk of bankruptcy or structural collapse.

Finally, the apparent volatility is not structural; the fluctuations are transitory and typical of short-term horizons and do not jeopardize long-term viability or results.

The returns are secure and moderate;

all forecasts and historical data confirm consistent positive results without extraordinary gains, but also without sharp declines or structural losses.

The investment profile is clear: this is an asset designed for those seeking security and continuity over rapid speculation.

It performs best in long-term portfolios.

It is recommended to hold or incorporate it into a portfolio with a medium- to long-term focus, as this is where its full strength and stability are realized.

For short-term management, it is advisable not to use it for speculative strategies; if holding short-term positions, monitor the usual volatility and avoid making hasty decisions in response to temporary price movements.