MULTI-TEMPORAL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF WALMEX: POLYNOMIAL MODELING AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE FACE OF A STRUCTURAL CYCLE CHANGE

 

This is a comprehensive statistical and econometric study of Walmart Mexico and Central America (WALMEX). The analysis covers three distinct time horizons: the entire historical series/long-term, an intermediate period called "WALMEX 3," and the short term with "WALMEX 180 DAYS."

A structured interpretation from the perspective of financial economics and portfolio management is presented below. The analysis of trend and econometric models (polynomials and regressions) evaluates the price trajectory using three types of functions: linear, third-degree polynomial (order 3), and sixth-degree polynomial (order 6).

Walmex's long-term cycle is not linear; it exhibits a clear wave-like structure (economic and market cycles). The sixth-order polynomial captures a major trend reversal. After a period of growth and stabilization at the top of the chart, the linear regression curve, the sixth-order polynomial, and the third-order polynomial all show a clear downward slope at the end of the period, suggesting the exhaustion of the secular bull market and a transition to a bearish or structural correction phase.

In the medium term, the price breaks down from the long-term moving average. The polynomial fit lines show a markedly downward slope that accelerates toward the end of the series, confirming that the company entered a market value contraction cycle during this period.

In the short term, or 180-day period, the coefficient of determination shows a high fit of 86.43%. The short-term chart is the most concerning for a decision-maker. It shows a clear distribution phase at the beginning (bell-shaped or rounded top) followed by a freefall. The sixth-order polynomial line crosses sharply downward, confirming an extremely strong short-term bearish momentum.

There is a successive contraction in the average price, with the mean, median, and mode defined as 65.4, 61.7, and 57.13, respectively. This econometrically validates that the asset is immersed in a major downtrend. The returns observed across all time horizons are negative.

Regarding the tail behavior (kurtosis and skewness), negative kurtosis indicates thinner tails than the normal distribution (a lower propensity for unexpected extreme shocks on a daily basis; the movement is more of a constant trend). The predominantly negative skew in both the long and short term indicates that downward movements tend to be more prolonged or frequent than upward rebounds.

The econometric forecasts or predictive modeling tables present price projections for 30, 90, 180, and 360 days. Comparing the projections of the three models, the signal is unanimous: a downward-sloping price structure.

In the overall series, the projected price falls from 54.63 (30 days) to 49.23 (360 days). In the 180-day series, the projected price falls from 51.31 (30 days) to 35.15 (360 days).

The short-term projection (180 days), estimating a price of 35.15 in one year, suggests that the econometric model is extrapolating the current steep downward trend linearly or polynomially. Financially, this signals a risk of a significant drop if the psychological support level of 50.00 is breached with volume.

In the long term, the probability of the price falling below 50.80 is only 1.89% (p), meaning that historically the market has considered Walmex at that price to be an area of ​​extreme undervaluation (a strong floor). However, in the short term (180 days), this cumulative probability rises to 1.90%, maintaining a Z-score of -2.07.

In the analysis, the Sharpe ratio calculation appears to be structured under a specific risk control metric for the tails of the distribution (likely associated with the 6.50% TLR or Risk-Free Rate shown there) or optimized in a non-standardized way, reflecting the high concentration of the price within specific ranges in the short term (low relative standard deviation over 180 days, 3.05, compared to the margin of error).

Conclusions and Strategic Recommendation

Technical-Econometric Diagnosis: WALMEX is formally in a bear market across all three analyzed time horizons. High-order polynomials accurately capture the severe short-term decline.

Control Zones: The X=50.80 value is statistically confirmed as a critical historical support level (the probability p of breaking it downwards is very low according to the historical distribution).

Investment Stance: Short Term, Avoid direct purchases. The econometric forecasts (35.15 - 49.23) show that the momentum is strongly bearish and the price is still falling.

n the long term (value), it is advisable to monitor institutional behavior near the 50.21-50.80 level (the historical low recorded in the tables). If the regression models begin to flatten in that area (change in concavity of the 6th-order polynomial), it would represent an exceptionally valuable asymmetric buying opportunity, given that historically, prices below that level have a probability of occurrence of less than 2%.