ANALYSIS REPORT: ECOPETROL'S PERFORMANCE AND SITUATION

 

Periods analyzed: 180 days, 3 years, and 5 years |

Date: June 2026

Presentation and Objective

This document compiles the statistical and econometric study and structural evaluation of Ecopetrol in order to present the observable reality of its performance, valuation, and market position—without biased interpretations or concealment. It is provided as input for management decision-making.

The first public offering took place in 2007; the historical peak was reached in 2011 and has not been surpassed in the almost 15 years since, despite partial upward cycles.

It is a mixed-ownership company, with the Colombian State effectively controlling approximately 80% of its capital. It is publicly traded, but its main decisions and direction depend primarily on government policy.

This analysis is conducted over three time periods; Over 180 days, or the short term, a general upward trend is observed, but with marked daily volatility.

The average is $2240, the median is $2242, the maximum is $2800, the minimum is $1199, and the standard deviation is high, confirming strong variations. The mathematical fit (cubic or linear function) describes the past trend, but it does not constitute a reliable prediction, as the short term depends on external factors not included in the model.

In the medium term, which in this case was 3 years, a complete cycle is evident, showing an initial drop, stabilization, and gradual recovery. Here, the cubic model fits the shape of the curve better, clearly marking the inflection point where the trend changes.

It shows that recovery is possible, but slow and interrupted, without breaking the historical high. For the long term, a five-year period was considered, revealing the cyclical and volatile nature inherent to the sector, but with a general trend of stagnation relative to the 2011 peak. It is confirmed that growth is neither continuous nor linear, and that the company has experienced prolonged periods of low valuation.

In the international context, in the analyzed activity/investment ranking, Colombia occupies 6th place with 205 units, at an upper-middle level in Latin America (behind only Brazil), but far from the leading financial and energy centers (Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States). This reflects its regional relevance, but also its limited global penetration and attractiveness.

Ecopetrol constitutes the largest source of revenue for the national budget. Mandatory transfers and dividends to the State drastically reduce the resources available for investment, modernization, exploration, and the generation of sustainable value. In practice, it functions more as a public spending instrument than as a company focused exclusively on profitability and shareholders.

 

Strategic decisions, management, and operating rules depend on government cycles. This generates constant uncertainty for investors, who value predictability above all else. Therefore, even in years with high international oil prices, the stock does not recover historical levels: political risk and the limitations on its growth potential are factored in.

The international price of crude oil also plays a role—the 2011 peak coincided with very high global prices that have not remained consistently high—but it is neither the sole nor the primary cause. Other countries and companies in the sector have managed to surpass their all-time highs in similar periods, demonstrating that the problem has local and structural roots.

The reality is clear: the most revealing fact is that since 2011, the stock's peak price has not been surpassed, despite favorable market cycles. Statistical and econometric models show partial recoveries, but not a break from the stagnant trend.

The root cause is not limited to the volatility of global oil prices. The prevailing model of state control has transformed the company into more of a fiscal resource than a competitive energy business. This hinders its agility, reduces its capacity to generate its own wealth, and diminishes its international appeal, as confirmed by its position in the global ranking.

The potential value of its reserves and operational capacity is not reflected in the market because shareholders and investors already factor in the political and fiscal constraints that weigh on the company.