HO CHI MINH CITY DEVELOPMENT: ESTABILIDAD DE LARGO PLAZO VS. VOLATILIDAD TRANSITORIA

 

Análisis estadístico-econométrico y financiero: Ho Chi

Minh City Development

Fecha: Junio 2026 | Alcance: Corto, mediano y largo plazo |

Fuentes: Estudio interno 

1. OBJETIVO DEL ESTUDIO

Evaluar el comportamiento histórico, el perfil de riesgo, la solidez fundamental y la capacidad de generación de rendimiento de la entidad, desagregando el análisis por horizontes temporales. El fin es entregar información clara, confiable y útil para la toma de decisiones de inversión y gestión.

2. RESUMEN EJECUTIVO PRINCIPAL

La entidad presenta oscilaciones marcadas en el corto y mediano plazo, lo que genera apariencia de alta volatilidad; sin embargo, sus fundamentos financieros y el análisis estadístico confirman que no se trata de riesgo estructural, su riesgo relativo es menor al del mercado general, genera rendimientos positivos moderados pero sostenibles, muestra máxima estabilidad y previsibilidad en el largo plazo, cuenta con una valoración razonable y sin sobreprecios, es un activo adecuado para estrategias de inversión a plazo amplio, donde la seguridad y la continuidad de los resultados son prioritarias.

De acuerdo con el análisis por horizonte temporal (estadístico), se observa que en el corto plazo se presenta una alta dispersión y volatilidad (desviación estándar de 5.795,53), rango amplio de variación, valores que cambian con rapidez, presentando mayor incertidumbre y menor precisión en las proyecciones inmediatas.

El rendimiento promedio sigue siendo positivo, pero está expuesto a desviaciones temporales. El rango de cotización anual (16.655 – 30.000) confirma estas oscilaciones habituales en el corto plazo.

En el mediano plazo, se mantiene cierta variabilidad (desviación estándar 6.308,11), aunque empieza a perfilarse la tendencia estructural y se reducen los movimientos bruscos extremos.

En esta etapa de transición, el modelo econométrico gana fiabilidad y la relación entre media y mediana empieza a equilibrarse. Es el puente entre la inestabilidad inmediata y la solidez a largo plazo y en el

largo plazo presenta una estabilidad muy destacada,  la desviación estándar baja drásticamente a 1.807,14, el rango de variación se estrecha y los datos se concentran fuertemente. El ajuste del modelo es el más fiable de todo el estudio. Aquí se confirma la fortaleza real,  rendimiento positivo sostenido, baja incertidumbre y alta previsibilidad. La estructura de la entidad es sólida y no muestra signos de deterioro.

Los indicadores fundamentales confirman y completan las conclusiones estadísticas, la beta = 0,43 menor a 1 riesgo relativamente bajo, oscila menos que el mercado en general,  lo que parece volatilidad fuerte es solo su comportamiento natural, no mayor riesgo que el promedio.

El PER = 7,0x muy moderado, la acción no está sobrevalorada, su precio guarda proporción justa con sus ganancias históricas y proyectadas.

El rendimiento sobre capital = 24,5 %, alto y estable demuestra capacidad real para generar ganancias sobre sus propios recursos, respaldando la sostenibilidad del rendimiento.

Precio / Valor Libro = 1,6 x, nivel prudente, no hay prima excesiva, el precio tiene soporte sólido en los activos reales de la empresa.

Capitalización de mercado = 127.131, entidad consolidada de tamaño grande, con menor riesgo de quiebra o colapso estructural.

Finalmente, la volatilidad aparente no es estructural, las oscilaciones son transitorias y propias de horizontes breves; no ponen en riesgo la viabilidad ni los resultados a largo plazo.

Los rendimientos seguros y moderados, todos los pronósticos y datos históricos confirman resultados positivos constantes sin ganancias extraordinarias, pero sin caídas profundas ni pérdidas estructurales.

El perfil de inversión es claro: se trata de un activo diseñado para quien busca seguridad y continuidad por encima de la especulación rápida. Funciona mejor en carteras de plazo amplio.

Se recomienda mantener o incorporar en la cartera bajo un enfoque de mediano y largo plazo, es ahí donde se aprovecha toda su fortaleza y estabilidad.

En la gestión a corto plazo, resulta aconsejable no usarla para estrategias especulativas; si se mantienen posiciones breves, vigilar la volatilidad habitual y no tomar decisiones precipitadas ante movimientos temporales.

HO CHI MINH CITY DEVELOPMENT.- LONG-TERM STABILITY VS. TRANSIENT VOLATILITY

 

Statistical-econometric and financial analysis: Ho Chi Minh City Development

Date: June 2026 |

Scope: Short, medium, and long term |

Sources: Internal study +

1. STUDY OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the historical performance, risk profile, fundamental strength, and return-generating capacity of the entity, disaggregating the analysis by time horizons.

The aim is to provide clear, reliable, and useful information for investment and management decision-making.

2. MAIN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The entity exhibits marked fluctuations in the short and medium term, creating the appearance of high volatility;

However, its financial fundamentals and statistical analysis confirm that it is not a structural risk; its relative risk is lower than that of the general market, it generates moderate but sustainable positive returns, it shows maximum stability and predictability in the long term, it has a reasonable valuation without overpricing, and it is a suitable asset for long-term investment strategies where security and continuity of results are priorities.

According to the time horizon analysis (statistical), it is observed that in the short term there is high dispersion and volatility (standard deviation of 5,795.53), a wide range of variation, and values ​​that change rapidly,

presenting greater uncertainty and less precision in immediate projections.

The average return remains positive, but it is exposed to temporary deviations.

The annual price range (16,655 – 30,000) confirms these typical short-term fluctuations. In the medium term, some variability persists (standard deviation 6,308.11), although the structural trend begins to emerge and extreme, sharp movements decrease.

During this transition phase, the econometric model gains reliability, and the relationship between the mean and median begins to stabilize.

It bridges the gap between immediate instability and long-term stability.

In the long term, it exhibits remarkable stability; the standard deviation drops sharply to 1,807.14, the range of variation narrows, and the data becomes highly concentrated.

The model fit is the most reliable in the entire study. This confirms the company's true strength, sustained positive performance, low uncertainty, and high predictability. The entity's structure is solid and shows no signs of deterioration.

The fundamental indicators confirm and complement the statistical conclusions. The beta (0.43) is less than 1, indicating relatively low risk. It fluctuates less than the overall market; what appears to be high volatility is simply its natural behavior, not greater risk than the average.

The P/E ratio of 7.0x is very moderate; the stock is not overvalued, and its price is fairly proportionate to its historical and projected earnings.

The return on equity of 24.5% is high and stable, demonstrating a real capacity to generate profits on its own resources, supporting the sustainability of the return.

The price-to-book ratio of 1.6x is prudent; there is no excessive premium, and the price has solid support in the company's real assets. Market capitalization of 127,131 indicates a large, consolidated entity with a lower risk of bankruptcy or structural collapse.

Finally, the apparent volatility is not structural; the fluctuations are transitory and typical of short-term horizons and do not jeopardize long-term viability or results.

The returns are secure and moderate;

all forecasts and historical data confirm consistent positive results without extraordinary gains, but also without sharp declines or structural losses.

The investment profile is clear: this is an asset designed for those seeking security and continuity over rapid speculation.

It performs best in long-term portfolios.

It is recommended to hold or incorporate it into a portfolio with a medium- to long-term focus, as this is where its full strength and stability are realized.

For short-term management, it is advisable not to use it for speculative strategies; if holding short-term positions, monitor the usual volatility and avoid making hasty decisions in response to temporary price movements.

ANALYSIS REPORT: ECOPETROL'S PERFORMANCE AND SITUATION

 

Periods analyzed: 180 days, 3 years, and 5 years |

Date: June 2026

Presentation and Objective

This document compiles the statistical and econometric study and structural evaluation of Ecopetrol in order to present the observable reality of its performance, valuation, and market position—without biased interpretations or concealment. It is provided as input for management decision-making.

The first public offering took place in 2007; the historical peak was reached in 2011 and has not been surpassed in the almost 15 years since, despite partial upward cycles.

It is a mixed-ownership company, with the Colombian State effectively controlling approximately 80% of its capital. It is publicly traded, but its main decisions and direction depend primarily on government policy.

This analysis is conducted over three time periods; Over 180 days, or the short term, a general upward trend is observed, but with marked daily volatility.

The average is $2240, the median is $2242, the maximum is $2800, the minimum is $1199, and the standard deviation is high, confirming strong variations. The mathematical fit (cubic or linear function) describes the past trend, but it does not constitute a reliable prediction, as the short term depends on external factors not included in the model.

In the medium term, which in this case was 3 years, a complete cycle is evident, showing an initial drop, stabilization, and gradual recovery. Here, the cubic model fits the shape of the curve better, clearly marking the inflection point where the trend changes.

It shows that recovery is possible, but slow and interrupted, without breaking the historical high. For the long term, a five-year period was considered, revealing the cyclical and volatile nature inherent to the sector, but with a general trend of stagnation relative to the 2011 peak. It is confirmed that growth is neither continuous nor linear, and that the company has experienced prolonged periods of low valuation.

In the international context, in the analyzed activity/investment ranking, Colombia occupies 6th place with 205 units, at an upper-middle level in Latin America (behind only Brazil), but far from the leading financial and energy centers (Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States). This reflects its regional relevance, but also its limited global penetration and attractiveness.

Ecopetrol constitutes the largest source of revenue for the national budget. Mandatory transfers and dividends to the State drastically reduce the resources available for investment, modernization, exploration, and the generation of sustainable value. In practice, it functions more as a public spending instrument than as a company focused exclusively on profitability and shareholders.

 

Strategic decisions, management, and operating rules depend on government cycles. This generates constant uncertainty for investors, who value predictability above all else. Therefore, even in years with high international oil prices, the stock does not recover historical levels: political risk and the limitations on its growth potential are factored in.

The international price of crude oil also plays a role—the 2011 peak coincided with very high global prices that have not remained consistently high—but it is neither the sole nor the primary cause. Other countries and companies in the sector have managed to surpass their all-time highs in similar periods, demonstrating that the problem has local and structural roots.

The reality is clear: the most revealing fact is that since 2011, the stock's peak price has not been surpassed, despite favorable market cycles. Statistical and econometric models show partial recoveries, but not a break from the stagnant trend.

The root cause is not limited to the volatility of global oil prices. The prevailing model of state control has transformed the company into more of a fiscal resource than a competitive energy business. This hinders its agility, reduces its capacity to generate its own wealth, and diminishes its international appeal, as confirmed by its position in the global ranking.

The potential value of its reserves and operational capacity is not reflected in the market because shareholders and investors already factor in the political and fiscal constraints that weigh on the company.

ECOPETROL ANTE EL ESPEJO DEL MERCADO: ANÁLISIS ECONOMÉTRICO, CICLOS DE VALORACIÓN Y DESAFÍOS ESTRUCTURALES»

 

Presentación y Objetivo

Este documento reúne el estudio estadístico, econométrico y la evaluación estructural de Ecopetrol, con el fin de exponer la realidad observable de su desempeño, valoración y posición en el mercado —sin interpretaciones parciales ni ocultamientos. Se entrega como insumo para la toma de decisiones directivas.

La primera emisión pública se realizó en el año 2007; el máximo histórico se alcanzó en 2011 y no ha sido superado en los casi 15 años siguientes, a pesar de ciclos alcistas parciales.

Es una empresa de naturaleza mixta, con control efectivo del Estado colombiano en cerca del 80 % del capital. Cotiza en bolsa, pero sus decisiones principales y su orientación dependen mayoritariamente de la política gubernamental.

Este análisis se realiza en tres temporalidades; en 180 días o corto plazo, se observa una tendencia alcista general, pero con volatilidad diaria marcada.

La media $2240., mediana $2242., máximo $2800., mínimo $1199, desviación estándar elevada, lo que confirma variaciones fuertes. El ajuste matemático (función cúbica o recta) describe la tendencia pasada, pero no constituye una predicción segura, el corto plazo depende de factores externos que no entran en el modelo.

En el mediano plazo que para este caso se tomaron 3 años, se distingue un ciclo completo, mostrando caída inicial, estabilización y recuperación progresiva. Aquí el modelo cúbico se ajusta mejor a la forma de la curva, marcando claramente el punto de inflexión donde cambia la tendencia.

Muestra que la recuperación es posible, pero lenta y con interrupciones, sin llegar a romper el techo histórico.

Para el largo plazo se tomaron 5 años, donde se evidencia la naturaleza cíclica y volátil inherente al sector, pero con una tendencia general estancada respecto al máximo de 2011.

Se confirma que el crecimiento no es continuo ni lineal, y que la empresa ha atravesado fases prolongadas de baja valoración.

La posición en el contexto internacional en el ranking de actividad/inversión analizada, Colombia ocupa el puesto 6.º con 205 u., en nivel intermedio‑alto en Latinoamérica (detrás solo de Brasil), pero muy lejos de los centros financieros y energéticos líderes (Hong Kong, Singapur, Estados Unidos). Esto refleja su relevancia regional, pero también su limitada penetración y atractivo global.

Ecopetrol constituye el mayor ingreso del presupuesto nacional. Las transferencias y dividendos obligatorios al Estado reducen drásticamente los recursos disponibles para inversión, modernización, exploración y generación de valor sostenible. Funciona en la práctica como un instrumento de gasto público, más que como una empresa orientada exclusivamente a la rentabilidad y al accionista.

Las decisiones estratégicas, la dirección y las reglas de operación dependen de los ciclos de gobierno. Esto genera incertidumbre permanente para los inversores, que valoran la previsibilidad por encima de todo. Por eso, incluso en años con buenos precios internacionales del petróleo, la acción no recupera niveles históricos: se descuenta el riesgo político y la limitación de su capacidad de crecimiento.

El precio internacional del crudo también influye —el máximo de 2011 coincidió con precios mundiales muy altos que no se han mantenido igual de forma sostenida—, pero no es la causa única ni principal, otros países y empresas del sector sí han logrado superar sus valores máximos históricos en periodos similares, lo que demuestra que el problema tiene raíces locales y estructurales.

La realidad es clara, el hecho más revelador es que desde 2011 no se ha vuelto a superar el precio máximo de la acción, a pesar de los ciclos favorables del mercado. Los modelos estadísticos y econométricos muestran recuperaciones parciales, pero no una ruptura de la tendencia estancada.

La causa raíz no se limita solo a la volatilidad del petróleo mundial. El modelo de control estatal predominante ha convertido a la empresa en un recurso fiscal más que en un negocio energético competitivo. Esto le quita agilidad, reduce su capacidad de generar riqueza propia y le resta atractivo internacional, como confirma su posición en el ranking global.

El valor que podría tener por sus reservas y capacidad operativa no se refleja en el mercado, porque el accionista y el inversor descuentan de antemano las limitaciones políticas y fiscales que pesan sobre la compañía.

NUBANK: BEARISH EXHAUSTION AND POTENTIAL REBOUND

The observations over the short term (180 days) can be summarized as follows: a persistent downtrend. While the adjustment line and daily price action continue to point downwards, projecting only this trend without further nuances would lead to much lower levels. However, the statistical model alone does not capture market limits or the strength of the business; it merely repeats what has already happened and does not anticipate when the decline will exhaust itself.

The downtrend signals are losing strength. The price is very close to the 52-week low of 40,100, an area that acts as a strong, natural support level.

Volatility has halved compared to the long term, and there are no longer any sharp movements, which usually means that sellers have already covered a large portion of their positions.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36, very close to oversold territory. Statistically, this makes it unlikely that the decline will continue unabated and increases the possibility of a rebound or consolidation. Volume hasn't increased during the recent declines. Without strong volume, the downtrend loses credibility and duration.

The support and recovery view is the most accurate. It's not just about numbers, but about real fundamentals; this is what differentiates a temporary adjustment from a definitive collapse.

Nubank continues to expand in Latin America, gaining customers and reducing costs compared to traditional banks. It's not a mature or stagnant company; it has growth potential ahead.

The return on equity is 30% (very high for the sector), the P/E ratio is moderate at 19, and there are no signs of bankruptcy or structural losses. The decline is more due to expectations of high interest rates and general market distrust than to internal failures.

The digital model, without cumbersome branches and with a focus on financial inclusion, gives it a competitive advantage that remains, even if the price falls. The company's value doesn't disappear just because the share price drops. In the short term (next days/weeks), further sharp declines are unlikely. The price will likely move near the support zone between 40,000 and 43,000, and may even test the low without a sustained break. If it holds this level, the first move will be a rebound or pullback towards the nearby resistance zone of 47,000-48,000, which was the previous close.

In the medium to long term (aligned with this study conducted since June 2022), the forecast gains more weight if macroeconomic conditions stabilize and the company continues to meet its expansion and profitability goals. In this scenario, the current downward trend will reverse, and much higher levels will be recovered.

The adjustment observed in recent years functions as a significant correction within the growth cycle of a young company, not as the end of its story. The mechanical projection of continuing the current downward trend is misleading because it ignores the established technical support and the strength of the business. A more comprehensive view is that we are reaching a bottoming zone where the risk-reward ratio shifts dramatically. Nu Holdings' innovation, expansion, and market position are the pillars that will ensure that, once selling pressure subsides, the price returns to reflect its true value and trends upward.

 

NUBANK: AGOTAMIENTO BAJISTA Y POTENCIAL DE REBOTE

 Lo observado en el corto plazo 180 días se resume de la siguiente manera tendencia bajista persistente, es cierto que la línea de ajuste y el comportamiento diario siguen marcando dirección hacia abajo, y si se proyectara solo esa tendencia sin más matices, se llegarían a niveles mucho menores. Pero el modelo estadístico por sí solo no capta los límites del mercado ni la fortaleza del negocio, solo repite lo que ya pasó, no anticipa cuándo se agota la caída.

Las señales de caída están perdiendo fuerza, el precio está muy cerca del mínimo de 52 semanas 40.100, zona que actúa como soporte natural y fuerte.

La volatilidad se redujo a la mitad respecto al largo plazo, ya no hay movimientos bruscos, lo que suele significar que los vendedores ya han cubierto gran parte de sus posiciones.

El indice de fuerza relativa está en 36, muy cerca de sobreventa. estadísticamente esto hace que sea poco probable que la caída siga sin pausa, y aumenta la posibilidad de rebote o consolidación.

El volumen no ha crecido en las últimas bajadas, sin volumen fuerte, la tendencia bajista pierde credibilidad y duración.

La visión del soporte y recuperación es la más acertada, no se trata solo de números, sino de fundamento real, esto es lo que diferencia un ajuste temporal de un colapso definitivo.

Nubank sigue expandiéndose en Latinoamérica, ganando clientes y reduciendo costos respecto a la banca tradicional. No es una empresa madura o estancada; tiene recorrido de crecimiento por delante.

El rendimiento del capital del 30 % (muy alto para el sector), PER moderado de19 y sin señales de quiebra o pérdidas estructurales. La caída responde más a expectativas de tasas de interés altas y desconfianza general del mercado que a fallos internos.

El modelo digital, sin sucursales pesadas y con foco en inclusión financiera, le da ventaja competitiva que se mantiene, aunque el precio baje. El valor de la empresa no desaparece solo porque la cotización caiga.

En el corto plazo (próximos días/semanas), es probable que ya no haya caídas profundas, se moverá cerca de la zona de soporte entre 40.000 y 43.000, incluso puede probar el mínimo sin romperlo de forma sostenida. Si aguanta este nivel, el primer movimiento será el rebote o pullback hacia la zona de resistencia cercana 47.000‑48.000, que fue el cierre anterior.

En el mediano‑largo plazo (alineado con este estudio realizado desde junio 2022), se puede deducir que el pronóstico gana más peso si se estabilizan las condiciones macroeconómicas y la empresa sigue cumpliendo sus metas de expansión y rentabilidad, la tendencia bajista actual se revertirá y se recuperarán niveles mucho más altos.

El ajuste que se observa en estos años funciona como una corrección fuerte, dentro del ciclo de    crecimiento de una empresa joven, no como el final de su historia.

La proyección mecánica de seguir la tendencia bajista actual es engañosa porque ignora el soporte técnico alcanzado y la solidez del negocio. La visión más completa es que estamos llegando a una zona de suelo donde la relación riesgo‑beneficio cambia totalmente. La innovación, expansión y posición de mercado de Nu Holdings son el pilar que hará que, una vez agotada la presión vendedora, el precio vuelva a reflejar su valor real y tienda al alza.

POLYNOMIAL MODELING OF CYCLES AND RISK-RETURN EFFICIENCY DIAGNOSIS

 

This study employs a multi-model approach, as it not only addresses the topic with simple linear regression but also applies polynomial models (of varying degrees), allowing it to capture trend changes, cycles, or nonlinear behaviors that a linear regression completely ignores.

The inclusion of the Sharpe Ratio and the Coefficient of Variation (CV) demonstrates that the study aims not only to predict value but also to understand the volatility and efficiency of the asset or variable under study.

By separating the sample into three different sizes—long-term with 1221 days of observations, medium-term with 730 days, and short-term with 180 days—the dynamics of each time frame can be observed.

In the long term, using the complete five-year historical analysis, a very weak least-squares trend line is observed (R² = 53.81%). However, the higher-degree polynomial model achieves an impressive R² of 95.09%. This indicates that CIBEST's historical behavior is strongly marked by complex cycles or oscillations.

The histogram and the Skewness (Asymmetry = 1.54) and Kurtosis (1.41) data show a clear positive skew. The data is concentrated at low values ​​(the peak is between 26,080 and 36,079) with a long tail to the right.

The Sharpe ratio of 2.20 is excellent, indicating a high return for each unit of risk assumed over this overall period.

In the medium term, using 730 days as the Intermediate Period, the linear trend becomes stronger (R² = 85.13%), and the polynomial rises to 97.13%. The series became much more predictable and uniform in this segment.

The Coefficient of Variation rises slightly (36.74%), and the Sharpe ratio falls to 1.45. This remains acceptable, but less efficient than in the overall picture.

In the short term (180 days, or recent period), the straight line fails spectacularly again in this shorter range (R² = 50.58%). Recent behavior is erratic or highly cyclical, requiring the polynomial (R² = 88.46%) for interpretation.

The change in behavior shows that the mean jumped to 74,824, a value drastically higher than the previous blocks (43,192 and 48,039). CIBEST has experienced massive growth recently, but with negative skewness (-0.15), suggesting that it is moving at the upper end of the distribution, with occasional sharp drops.

The exceptional long-term return of 193.94%, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 35.05% and a standard deviation of 15,137.86, demonstrates a high level of efficiency in the Sharpe ratio of 2.20.

This period (representing the largest or historical sample) shows an extraordinary cumulative return of almost 194%. The most noteworthy aspect from a financial perspective is its Sharpe ratio of 2.20, which is considered excellent. This demonstrates that the asset generated a highly robust return for each unit of volatility assumed. Despite a considerable standard deviation, the consistency of the upward trend (captured in previous polynomial models) more than compensated for the risk.

Over the medium term (730 days), maturation and increased volatility are observed, with a return of 160.82%, a coefficient of variation (CV) of 36.74%, a standard deviation of 17,647.31, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.45. In this intermediate time frame, the return remains very high (160.82%). However, a structural change is observed: risk increased, and efficiency decreased. The standard deviation rises to 17,647.31, and the coefficient of variation increases slightly to 36.74%, meaning the asset became more volatile relative to its mean (48,039). As a direct consequence, the Sharpe ratio falls to 1.45. This remains an institutionally attractive performance (greater than 1.0), but it denotes a more turbulent market environment or one with more pronounced corrections.

This is still an institutionally attractive performance (greater than 1.0), but it indicates a more turbulent market environment or one with more pronounced corrections. Finally, in the short term (180 days) or recent phase of stabilization or commercial maturity, the return is 32.12%, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 12.25% and a standard deviation of 9,166.91. The Sharpe ratio of 1.80 indicates good efficiency for CIBEST.

The shortest period (180 observations) shows a return of 32.12%. Although nominally lower compared to longer-term horizons, the underlying statistical behavior is extremely interesting. The coefficient of variation drops drastically to 12.25%, indicating that prices have compacted strongly around their new level The average price is high (74,824). Price dispersion decreased significantly.

With the reduction in volatility or standard deviation from 9,166.91, the Sharpe ratio rebounded to 1.80. This indicates that, in the recent short term, CIBEST is a much more predictable, safe, and efficient asset per unit of risk than in the medium term, moving within a plateau of high prices with controlled fluctuations.

The shift from the medium-term period to the short-term period reflects an asset that has moved from a phase of high volatility and aggressive growth to a stage of consolidation. The decrease in the coefficient of variation (CV) from 36.74% to 12.25% is a key technical indicator of stability in the recent period.

If historical consistency is assessed, the overall (long-term) scenario continues to show the best general efficiency metrics (Sharpe 2.20), suggesting that CIBEST has historically rewarded retention strategies or long-term analyses (Buy and Hold or structural investments), while intermediate periods experienced turbulence that temporarily affected the risk-premium relationship.

The graphs show polynomial equations of up to the 6th degree. Although mathematically an R² of 95% or 97% looks spectacular in the snapshot of the past, polynomials of such high degrees suffer from a serious prediction error at the extremes. If you use that 6th-degree equation to "forecast" tomorrow (data point 1222), the curve tends to spike unrealistically up or down.

The study is an excellent descriptive diagnosis of CIBEST's past performance. It clearly demonstrates that the variable is not linear and that it has recently gone through a period of strong short-term appreciation.