Banco de Bogotá currently
appears to be a solid bank, with its stock recovering ground from its 2023
lows, but still highly cyclical and tied to the interest rate cycle and credit
in Colombia. Looking ahead, the outlook is moderately positive over a 2-5 year
horizon, although short-term volatility is expected, with returns likely coming
more from dividends than from a significant re-rating.
In terms of price, the stock
fell from an all-time high of around COP 64,200 in June 2022 to a low near COP
23,900 in November 2023, and has since rebounded more than 30% in the last
year.
In 2025, the stock is trading
near COP 38,000–39,000, well above the 52-week low (COP 26,000), but still
below its all-time highs, suggesting a recovery phase rather than exuberance.
The bank closed 2024 with positive net income, but with a decline compared to 2023 in the fourth quarter, affected by higher operating expenses and a still relatively high interest rate environment, although with improvements in funding costs and the net interest margin compared to the previous quarter.
The gross loan portfolio
reached approximately COP 107 trillion at the end of 2024, with growth in the
quarter, while the stock has been offering attractive dividend yields (around
6–9% in recent years, with a payout ratio close to 50–60%).
Management aims to increase market share in lending by 2025, with portfolio growth in Commercial, consumer, and especially housing segments, which were already growing at over 20% annually.
The Central Bank's monetary
policy report indicates a scenario of gradual interest rate reductions and
moderate economic recovery, which tends to favor banks' margins and portfolio
quality, although fiscal and confidence risks persist.
If interest rates continue to
fall and the economy stabilizes, it is reasonable to expect gradual growth in
profits and dividends over the next 2–3 years, with the stock moving more
towards its fundamental value than towards new short-term extreme highs.
However, due to the sector's
sensitivity to macroeconomics and regulation, any specific price projection is
highly uncertain. As a financial economist, this investment case would make
sense primarily for an investor seeking a high dividend in Colombian pesos
(COP), exposure to traditional Colombian banking, and a horizon of at least 3
years, entering only at a discount to book value and assuming the country's
political and fiscal volatility. The price chart shows the evolution of BBO
stock from January 1, 2010, to December 9, 2025. Volatile behavior is observed,
with an opening price of approximately 33,575.70 and a closing price of
38,860.00.
The linear trend is weak, and
the best fit is offered by the third-order polynomial, suggesting that the
price trajectory is not a simple rise or fall, but rather is driven by economic
or sector-specific cycles that the third-order function is better able to
model.
In finance, kurtosis is vital
because it measures tail risk, or the probability of extreme events. High
kurtosis (leptokurtic) implies heavy tails and a sharper peak, meaning more
extreme events (losses or gains) than the normal distribution model would predict.
The negative kurtosis (platykurtic) result for BBO indicates a distribution
with lighter tails. This suggests, theoretically, less risk of extreme events
(very high or low outliers) compared to a normal distribution.
The histogram and frequency
polygon corroborate the negative skewness (the tail extends to the left,
resulting in low values) and the platykurtic shape (flatter than normal).
The cumulative distribution
function (CDF) is essential for calculating the value at risk (VaR). The
cumulative probability F(x) gives us the probability that the price will be
less than or equal to a value x. The "run probability" (or complement
1−F(x)) indicates the probability that the price will exceed a value x. This
allows an investor to establish the probability of a given maximum loss or
minimum expected gain. The table shows Z and X values that appear to be
probability values or Z-scores, with Z = −1.07 (implying that the run
probability up to that point is less than 50%) and Z = 1.65 (implying that the
run probability is high, around 95%). These points are critical for
establishing confidence intervals or VaR.
Statistical analysis reveals
the following key characteristics for investing in BBO: the current price of
38,860.00 is significantly below the mean The current price reinforces the
conclusion of the statistical analysis: the long-term trend is bullish, and the
price is in an appreciation phase.
Pivot points define support (S) and resistance (R)
levels for daily or weekly trading.
Since the price is above the pivot point and near
resistance levels R2 ($38,780) and R3 ($38,980), this confirms the bullish
momentum but also the proximity to levels where traders typically take profits,
which aligns with the oscillators' overbought warning.
The integrated analysis presents a picture with
conflicting signals in the short term but a clear long-term direction.
The aggregate strong buy signal from Investing is
dominated by the strength of the moving averages. The long-term econometric
analysis (mean reversion) is bullish.
However, the overbought signal and the cumulative
probability of 14.25% dictate the strategy:
It is not advisable to open a position at this
precise moment ($38,860.0), due to the high risk of an immediate correction
indicated by the overbought oscillators (STOCH and Williams %R).
Wait for a pullback. Place a buy order near a key
support level, such as the classic pivot point ($38,440) or the 5-day moving
average (MA5) ($38,476), where overbought conditions have eased, but the
underlying trend (MM) remains bullish.
Hold the position to look for a reversal to the
historical moving average ($55,792.86), placing the stop-loss below the 10-day
or 20-day moving average to protect against a potential trend reversal.
The long-term opportunity is strong, but the entry
timing is poor. It's best to wait for the
impending correction.
