The IBEX 35 is the main benchmark stock market index of the
Spanish Stock Exchange and comprises 35 of the most liquid companies listed on
the continuous market (BME). This index is weighted by market capitalization
adjusted for free float, meaning that the largest and most liquid stocks have a
greater impact on its performance.
The IBEX 35 represents a "basket" of 35 stocks
selected from the most traded companies on the Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao, and Valencia stock exchanges.
Its composition is determined by a technical committee that periodically
reviews which companies are included or excluded, based on criteria such as
trading volume and market capitalization. The index is calculated in real time
during the trading session and serves as a barometer of the Spanish market.
Its importance lies in the fact
that it functions as a barometer of the economy and investor sentiment
regarding Spain. Many index funds, ETFs, and derivatives (futures and options)
use the IBEX 35 as their underlying asset, meaning that index movements affect
capital flows and country risk valuation. Furthermore, economic policy decisions and external shocks
are often quickly reflected in its daily fluctuations.
In a global context, the IBEX 35 is the benchmark index of
the Eurozone's fourth-largest economy, and is therefore followed as an
indicator of the health of the Spanish market within the universe of developed
market indices (along with the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, CAC 40, etc.).
Although its weight in global market capitalization is smaller than that of the
United States or other major índices While the IBEX 35 remains relevant for
measuring the performance of Spanish assets in international portfolios, it is
also useful for analyzing sectors where Spain has a global presence (banking,
energy, infrastructure, utilities). For an economics or finance textbook, it
can serve as a case study of a representative index for a medium-sized
developed market and as an example of how indices serve as a benchmark for
passive investment and risk management.
The price chart shows the evolution of the IBEX 35 from a
starting point of 12,145.10 to a final value of 17,016.85. An initial period of
high volatility is observed, followed by price consolidation and then a strong
rebound in the final phase of the analyzed period, approaching its all-time
highs. The market has demonstrated significant resilience.
The chart
indicates an index growth of 40.11% over the period, representing an average
annualized return of 2.22% (average monthly growth). The trend, whose equation
is y=0.528x+8909.1, is relatively flat and falls below most others from recent
data. This suggests that recent growth is above the historical average for the
entire period, indicating a possible upward momentum or an accelerated
recovery.
These curves
fit the market's "U" or "W" shape much better. The
polynomial correlation of order 6 (68.45%) and order 3 (60.87%) are
significantly higher than the simple linear correlation. This is crucial
because:
The IBEX 35
market does not follow a simple, linear long-term trend; it is a complex system
with boom-and-bust cycles more clearly modeled by nonlinear functions. The
order 6 trend better captures volatility and turning points (peaks and
troughs), making it the best predictive tool within this model.
Asymmetry
bias, given that mean (9,632) > median (9,393) > mode (8,866); The
distribution exhibits positive skewness (0.44—though not excessive).
The bell
curve is slightly distorted, with a longer tail to the right (higher values).
This indicates that there were more price observations below the mean, but the
higher values (such
as the maximum of 17,016.85) are pulling the average upward.
urtosis measures the degree of concentration of the data around the mean and the probability of extreme events (fat tails).
A kurtosis
value greater than 3 (or greater than 0 for excess kurtosis) indicates a
leptokurtic distribution, with thicker tails. Thick tails mean that extreme
returns (both large losses and gains) are more likely than predicted by the
normal distribution.
The value of
2.69 (which implies a slightly negative excess kurtosis) suggests a somewhat
platykurtic or less peaked distribution than normal. However, in finance, the
tendency towards leptokurtosis is the norm, indicating that, while the
distribution model may suggest otherwise, in the real market the possibility of
extreme jumps and shocks (tail risk) must always be assumed, which is crucial
for risk management. Kurtosis analysis always alerts the investor to the
presence of non-normalized risk.
The histogram corroborates the
positive skewness. The highest frequency (mode) is found in the lower price
ranges (approximately between 5,956.3 and 9,956.3).
The shape of the frequency
polygon does not perfectly fit the normal distribution curve. The leftward
shift (more observations of low prices) is evident.
The historical data of the IBEX
35 do not follow a normal distribution. This is the norm for financial asset
prices, and it underscores that valuation models based on normality (such as
the Black-Scholes model for options) should be used with caution, and tail risk
management and non-constant volatility should be integrated.
The total
growth of 40.11% and an average monthly growth of 2.22% are attractive for
passive investing.
The
6th-order polynomial correlation analysis (68.45% fit) is the most reliable
tool in this model. The index is at its highest value in the study (17,016.85),
placing it in an upward momentum phase.
Los
pronósticos son positivos: 10.387,14 (90 días) y 10.418,98 (180
días). Riesgos y Volatilidad, la desviación estándar
(1,676.40) es alta en relación con la media, lo que
indica volatilidad, el sesgo positivo y la curtosis no normalizada
confirman la presencia de riesgo no gaussiano.
El índice muestra
una clara tendencia alcista reciente que está superando la tendencia
histórica de largo plazo (línea lineal), y está en un máximo de ciclo según su
serie. El modelo polinómico, que mejor captura el comportamiento del IBEX 35, soporta
esta fase de crecimiento.
Se debe aconsejar una
inversión pasiva a largo plazo utilizando la estrategia DCA (Dollar-Cost
Averaging). Dado que la volatilidad es alta y el índice está en un punto alto
(Máximo: 17,016.85), invertir una gran suma de golpe es arriesgado. El DCA
(invertir una cantidad fija de dinero de forma regular) mitiga el riesgo de
invertir en el pico de un ciclo, aprovechando la tendencia de crecimiento a
largo plazo confirmada por el 40,11 % de Growth.
Se debe monitorear el ajuste a
la polinomial de orden 6, ya que es la mejor herramienta para detectar el
próximo punto de inflexión.
El análisis técnico utiliza
herramientas para predecir movimientos de precios futuros basándose en datos
históricos. Los indicadores y osciladores son cruciales para medir el impulso,
la volatilidad, y las condiciones de sobrecompra/sobreventa.
Las Medias Móviles (MM) se
utilizan para suavizar la acción del precio y confirmar la dirección de la
tendencia:
La señal de neutralidad es
notable. Esto indica que no hay un consenso claro de tendencia en el
corto/medio plazo.
Las MM de corto plazo (MA5,
MA10, MA20) muestran venta. Esto refleja la ligera corrección o consolidación
actual después de alcanzar el máximo (último cierre de 16,854.4 vs. rango del
día 16,833.1−17,032.5).
Las MM de largo plazo (MA50,
MA100, MA200) muestran compra. Esto confirma la fuerte tendencia alcista a
largo plazo que ya habíamos identificado con el crecimiento del 40,11 % en el
análisis econométrico.
La tendencia fundamental a
largo plazo es positiva, pero el precio está actualmente por encima de la media
de corto plazo, sugiriendo un momento de consolidación o corrección leve.
Los osciladores miden el ritmo
o la velocidad del movimiento del precio, no la dirección per se.
El resumen de los indicadores
técnicos muestra más señales de venta (4) y sobrecompra (4) que de compra (3).
El STOCH(9,6) en Sobrecompra
(98.631): Esto es una advertencia muy fuerte de que el mercado está
técnicamente exhausto a corto plazo y es vulnerable a una corrección a la baja.
EL Williams %R en sobrecompra
(−2.573), confirma la condición de sobrecompra.
El RSI (14) en Neutral
(48.152) se ubica en la zona media
(cerca de 50), indicando un equilibrio en el impulso, pero sin la fuerza
necesaria para iniciar un nuevo rally explosivo.
El MACD (12,26) en Compra
(42.840): este es un punto positivo, ya que el MACD (Moving Average
Convergence-Divergencia) es un buen indicador de impulso, sugiriendo que,
aunque lento, el impulso sigue siendo alcista.
The observation that a
cumulative probability p of 100% has been traversed is a way of saying that the
current price (16,854.4) is at the upper end of the historical range (52-week
range: 11,310.5–17,032.5). This reinforces the idea that the index is in a
cautious position and the potential for immediate return is limited, while the
risk of a reversal is high.
The Pivot Points (16,908.21
Classical/Fibonacci) are key support and resistance levels. The closing price
(16,854.4) is slightly below the Pivot Point (16,908.21), suggesting that
selling pressure was greater than buying pressure on the day under analysis,
pushing the price down, although it remains above support S1 (16,814.47
Classical). If it breaks the Pivot Point to the downside, the correction could
accelerate.
The combination of econometric
(long-term) and technical (short-term) analysis provides the following
diagnosis:
From a technical analysis
perspective, is the IBEX 35 a buying or selling opportunity?
Technical analysis suggests
strong restraint and caution at this time:
Although the daily strong buy
signal is indicated in the FAQs, the individual breakdown of the indicators (4
Sell, 4 Overbought) and the perfect neutrality of the moving averages, along
with the overbought condition of the STOCH, indicate that the price is
exhausted in the short term.
For long-term (passive) investors, maintain the Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy. Do not make a large, one-time purchase. Allow the market to correct (by For example, to the S1 level or even the Fibonacci Pivot Point (16,908.21) before making the next periodic purchase, as the short-term risk is high.
For short-term traders, this is a time for tactical
selling (or profit-taking) due to the overbought condition of the STOCH
oscillator and the weakness of the daily range.
