The average price (mean) is
approximately $79.83, with a high standard deviation (68.46), indicating
significant historical volatility in the stock price. This level of volatility
is typical of high-growth technology stocks like Amazon.
The
price range (from a minimum of $5.43 to a maximum of $254) and high variance
confirm strong past fluctuations. This implies that the stock
may experience periods of high turbulence.
The positive skew of 0.60
suggests that the distribution of returns is more likely to exhibit upward than
downward variations, which is a favorable signal for investors. The negative
kurtosis (-0.94) indicates fewer extreme tails than expected for a normal
distribution, showing a lower frequency of very extreme events.
The average monthly return is 1.76%, and the
cumulative positive return over 15 years is 2571.03%, highlighting solid and
sustained historical growth.
Strong linear (92.9%) and polynomial (96.7% for order
6) correlations between the predictor variable and current prices indicate
robust predictive models.
Amazon maintains a leading position in e-commerce,
cloud services with AWS, and diversification into sectors such as artificial
intelligence and logistics. This provides it with a strong foundation to
sustain growth and withstand market volatility.
Its capacity for constant innovation and controlled
expansion, along with solid financial fundamentals (revenue, cash flow),
contribute to long-term stability.
Despite historical volatility, the trend and solid
fundamentals make Amazon an attractive stock for medium- and long-term
investors.
Incentives for investors come from the expected
growth in disruptive technology sectors and global expansion, while the price
forecast suggests continued favorable performance.
However, it is recommended to be attentive to
macroeconomic risks, regulations, and increasing competition.
Amazon is a solid company with volatility typical of
its sector, with a positive technical and fundamental outlook supported by
encouraging forecasts for investors. The stock remains an attractive asset for
those who tolerate market fluctuations and seek sustained growth. The study
covers the period from January 4, 2010, to March 12, 2025. Historical returns
show a yield of 2571.03%. This indicates extraordinary growth in the stock's
value over the study period.
In the performance chart, the trend line fitted to y
= 0.055x - 30.333, with an R² of 0.963, shows that the linear model explains
96.3% of the price variation which is very high and implies a very strong and
consistent upward trend.
The short- and medium-term price forecasts
(projections) are also positive: the 90-day forecast is 188.46, the 180-day
forecast is 299.83, and the 360-day forecast is 299.73. The mean (79.83) >
median (58.84) > mode (11.15). This order relationship between the three
measures of central tendency (mean > median > mode) is characteristic of
a positively skewed (or right-skewed) distribution, meaning that the price
distribution is distorted or asymmetrical with respect to the Gaussian or
normal distribution. The tail of the distribution is longer to the right
(higher values), which is dominated by the highest price peaks.
The profitability chart already shows that the trend
lines (linear, 3rd-order polynomial, and 6th-order polynomial) closely track
prices. The high polynomial correlation values (especially 96.75%) indicate
that a 6th-order econometric model best describes and forecasts the historical
price trajectory of AMZN, capturing the fluctuations and growth curves very
accurately.
The
Amazon (AMZN) histogram with its corresponding frequency polygon (the orange
line) shows the price distribution. The shape of the histogram corroborates the
positive skew found in the descriptive statistics; most occurrences (the
tallest bar in the histogram) fall within the first price interval,
5.43–105.43. The frequency decreases sharply in the higher price ranges (105.43
- 205.43 and 205.43 - 305.43).
The distribution is concentrated on the left (low prices) and has a long tail on the right (high prices), which is the visual signature of a positively skewed distribution, confirming the deviation from the Gaussian bell curve (a normal distribution
n would be symmetrical, with the maximum frequency in the middle).Based
on this statistical and econometric analysis, the evidence suggests a positive
investment recommendation, a strong upward trend, a 15-year return of 2571.03%,
and very high correlation and R² coefficients (close to 96%), indicating a
solid and predictable historical growth trajectory. Projections at 90, 180, and
360 years are also supported The number of days indicates a continued increase
in the stock price from the current level.
The
positive skewness of the distribution (Mean > Median > Mode) implies
that, while the stock has had many days at lower prices, the higher prices have
been what have driven the overall performance.
The
negative kurtosis suggests that the probability of experiencing large, extreme
price shocks (both positive and negative) is lower than expected by the normal
model, which can be interpreted as a positive sign of lower tail risk for the
investor.
The
data suggest that AMZN is in a strong uptrend, with a well-fitting historical
growth model and statistical indicators that, although confirming a non-normal
distribution, indicate robust and consistent performance.
The
technical indicators show a clear "Strong Sell" signal. Most
oscillators and momentum indicators (STOCH(9,6), Williams %R, CCI(14), ROC,
Bull/Bear Power) are generating sell signals. This contrasts sharply with the
long-term upward trend identified in the econometric analysis.
The STOCHRSI(14) shows 7.941, indicating that the
asset is oversold. While seven indicators point to selling, the oversold
condition suggests that the price may be nearing a temporary bottom before
resuming the main trend.
The
ADX(14) of 43.855, with a buy signal, is significant, as a value above 25
indicates a strong trend. In this case, the long-term uptrend remains strong,
but the oscillators suggest the market is experiencing a short-term pullback or
correction within that trend.
The
ATR(14) of 1.7242, with lower volatility, suggests that recent price movements
have been relatively mild The price remains calm, which may be characteristic
of a consolidation phase before it decides on its next major move.
The
moving averages (MAs) are neutral (6 Buy, 6 Sell). The short-term MAs (MA5,
MA10, MA20) are split between buy and sell, with a sell bias in the simple MAs.
This means that the current price ($232.38) is below the very short-term MAs
(MA10 and MA20, both simple and exponential), signaling immediate downward
pressure.
The
long-term MAs (MA50, MA100, MA200) are mostly in buy (4 out of 6), which is
crucial, as these averages are better indicators of the underlying long-term
trend.
The
overall neutrality indicates that the price is moving sideways or consolidating
around the major moving averages. This supports the argument for a short-term
temporary correction, but not a break in the long-term uptrend.
The
assertion that the stock has reached a cumulative probability p of 98.71% and
is therefore in a precautionary position is a direct integration of statistical
analysis with the concept of risk.
This p-value of 98.71% suggests that the current price ($232.38) is very close to the 99th percentile of the historical price distribution (based on the histogram and distribution curve). Being at such a high percentile indicates that the current price is unusually high in the context of the last 15 years
This fully justifies the
"cautionary position." If the price is at 98.71% of the historical
data,This means there is little room for similar growth to past levels before a
potential downward correction, as the price is approaching historical upper
limits.
The previously analyzed
negative kurtosis ($-0.535) suggests that, while the price is high, the
probability of a catastrophic collapse (negative fat tail) is low, which
somewhat tempers caution. Overlaying the technical analysis with the
statistical-econometric analysis reveals a time divergence, a strongly bullish
trend (2571% return), excellent econometric fit, and positive forecasts.
The market is showing
uncertainty and immediate bearish pressure (heavy selling in indicators)
because the price is at a historically high level (98.71% according to the
cumulative probability).
The investment thesis for AMZN remains positive. The
current short-term pullback (technical sell signal) should be viewed as a
tactical buying opportunity if the price falls to a key support level.
Short-term investors should exercise caution
(neutral/sell). It is advisable to wait for the oversold signal (STOCHRSI) to
reverse or for the moving averages to align with a buy signal before entering,
or to look for a bounce off the Pivot Point support levels (S1: 231.95, S2:
231.41).
The current price ($232.38) is just above the classic
pivot point (232.27), indicating indecision as to whether the market will
maintain or reverse the trend.
AMZN is an exceptional long-term growth stock that is
currently going through a short-term correction or consolidation, justified by
its high historical price.
