The Colombian Mercantile
Exchange (BMC) has shown positive performance and remarkable growth in the last
period, with an annual increase in the share price of approximately 130.77%.
Historically, it reached its highest value in July 2015, when the share price
hit COP 4,995, and its all-time low was in August 2012 at COP 530,
demonstrating significant stock market development.
Regarding its economic and
financial performance, the BMC reported outstanding growth in 2015 with a 70%
increase in net income, rising from COP 17.617 billion to COP 29.881 billion in
the third quarter. Operating revenues also grew by 36% compared to 2014,
reaching COP 93.241 billion. Furthermore, EBITDA grew by 72%, reaching COP
50.991 billion, while the net margin stood at 32% and the return on equity
(ROE) was 44%, well above the 29% of the previous year, demonstrating financial
strength and attractive profitability for investors.
Key financial indicators such as the high ROE and the sustained increase in revenues and operating profit are encouraging signs for attracting investment. The company has shown its ability to adapt and grow in a favorable economic environment, supported by Innovation and financial services diversify its revenue streams and strengthen its market position.
For
future projections, recent performance indicates a promising scenario for
investors. The Colombian Mercantile Exchange (BMC) is on track to consolidate
sustainable growth, with robust financial fundamentals and positive trends in
its operating results. The probability of growth is high if it maintains this
momentum, supported by its key role in the Colombian financial market and the
country's economic development.
This
analysis suggests that the BMC represents an attractive investment opportunity,
backed by favorable financial indicators, sustained economic growth, and a
positive historical track record. Investors may find it appealing, although
detailed analysis and continuous monitoring of external economic and regulatory
factors are always recommended.
The
information found in various sources includes price charts, trend lines,
descriptive statistics, probability measures, and a histogram, which we will
use to evaluate the BMC's current situation.
The
BMC's stock time series chart shows marked volatility and a general upward
trend, especially toward the end of the period The analyzed data shows that the
price reached a maximum of 5000. The initial price was 2650. Comparing linear
and polynomial correlations, it can be established that the 6th-order
polynomial correlation (88.40%) best fits the data, confirming that the BMC
price evolution is not linear but cyclical, exhibiting multiple inflection
points. The high R² value in the polynomial models (>80%) indicates the
strong explanatory power of the complex historical trend, while the low linear
correlation underscores that long-term projections using only a straight line
would be highly inaccurate.
The mean (1329.31), median
(909.00), and mode (1610.00) show a significant difference, confirming a skew
or distortion in the distribution. The positive skewness indicates that the
distribution is skewed to the right, meaning the right tail is longer and there
are more extreme values (high prices) that pull the mean upward, away from
the median and mode. In an investment context, this can suggest that there have
been exceptional gains (high outliers) that inflate the average.
High
kurtosis (>3, leptokurtic) indicates a higher probability of both very large
losses and very large gains. This is associated with high tail risk (risk of
rare events). Low kurtosis (<3, platykurtic) indicates a lower probability
of extreme events compared to a normal distribution. The data is more dispersed
in the tails.
In
this case, a kurtosis of 2.12 suggests that BMC returns, although volatile
(high standard deviation), have a lower concentration of extreme events (large
price jumps) than if they behaved in a perfectly normal manner. This is important for the risk model because Value at
Risk (VaR) models that assume normality could overestimate tail risk for this
specific asset.
The histogram visually corroborates the positive
skewness (right skew) indicated by the skewness statistic calculation.
Most historical price observations fall within the
lower range, but high values (5000) have occurred frequently enough to
strongly influence the mean, as seen in the skewness analysis.
The statistical and econometric analysis reveals the
following key points: high volatility and an upward trend, with a high standard
deviation and a very high correlation (88.40%) for the 6th-order polynomial
model, capturing the current strong upward trend that drove the price to the
5000 peak. The average monthly return of 0.35% is positive. The distribution is
not normal, the positive skew indicates the influence of historically high
prices, and the low kurtosis suggests a lower risk of extreme tail events
compared to a normal asset.
The 90-day forecast of 1809.71 is well below the
current closing price (assuming 2929 is the last closing price in the table),
implying that the statistical model, influenced by historically low prices,
projects a short-term correction or decline from the highs.
Therefore, this is not the optimal time to invest in
BMC based solely on this data.
The investment would be made near the all-time high
(5000), and statistical analysis projects a significant correction in the next
90 days (forecast of 1809.71). Buying at the high and waiting for a drop is not
a prudent strategy.
The current high price implies a greater risk of mean
reversion, which the 90-day forecast suggests.
It is prudent to wait for a price correction toward
the forecast level (1809.71) or near the historical average (1329.31) before
considering a purchase, or to revise the forecasting model using more advanced
time series techniques that better incorporate the recent trend, such as ARIMA.
The integration of market indicators and oscillators,
along with moving averages, reveals a picture of extreme euphoria and
overbought conditions, which intensifies the cautionary signal given by the
previous statistical analysis.
Technical indicators show a generally neutral
situation, but the details reveal a high concentration of overbought signals.
It's important to note that oscillators measure the speed and
overbought/oversold condition of the price.
The RSI (14) = 87.281 (Oversebought), showing that a
value above 70 indicates that the asset is Overbought. A value of 87,281 is
extremely high, suggesting that the price has risen too quickly and is
vulnerable to a correction.
On the other hand, moving averages (MAs) are used to
identify the dominant trend and support/resistance levels. The summary is Buy,
which contradicts the overbought signals.
The short-term moving averages (5 and 10 days) signal a sell (or caution) because the current price is already well above these averages, suggesting overstretching. If the current price is 5000 (as indicated by the 5 and 10-day MAs), these averages are acting like a "rubber band" that could pull the price down.
The
long-term MAs (50, 100, and 200-day MAs) signal a buy because the current BMC
price (possibly 5000) is well above these averages. This confirms that the
underlying trend is strongly bullish. The 200-day MA at 3100.20 would be key
support in the event of a severe correction.
There
is a dichotomy. The underlying trend is undeniably bullish (long-term moving
averages), but the recent move is overheated (short-term moving averages). The market is in a momentary bubble within a major
upward trend.
The observation that a cumulative probability p of
88.68% has been reached is crucial, meaning that the current price or
historically reached prices These prices are higher than 88.68% of all prices
observed in the data distribution.
In other words, the stock is at the 88.68th
percentile, very close to the upper end of the distribution, confirming the
cautionary or alert position, as the room for the price to rise without
correction is statistically limited. This is strong confirmation of the
reversal risk.
The high risk of a short-term correction, indicated
by the statistical forecast and the overbought alerts from the oscillators
(RSI, STOCH, Williams %R), is the dominant signal. Although BMC is a "good
stock" with a strong underlying uptrend and solid fundamentals (as
suggested by the Revenue, EPS, and 7.1% Dividend data), the current price
reflects unsustainable short-term euphoria.
The investment recommendation is to not buy at this
time. The risk level is too high, as the
probability of a correction far outweighs the potential for immediate profit. It's best to wait for the correction, monitor the
stock, and look for an entry point (buy) at a significant support level. The
levels suggested by the 200-day moving average (approximately 3100) or the
statistical forecast (approximately 1809) could be better re-entry points after
the market recovers from overbought conditions.
If you already hold a position, now is an opportune time to consider taking partial profits due to the extreme overbought condition.
References (APA style):
• Colombian Mercantile
Exchange. (2025). Third Quarter 2025 Financial Report. Retrieved from
https://www.larepublica.co/finanzas/bolsa-mercantil-de-colombia-alcanzo-crecimiento-de-70-en-utilidades-a-septiembre-4264241
• Colombian Mercantile
Exchange. (2025). Historical Evolution and Price of the BMC Stock. Retrieved
from https://es.tradingview.com/symbols/BVC-BMC/
• Colombian Mercantile
Exchange. (2024). Innovation and Technology at the Colombian Mercantile
Exchange. Retrieved from
http://www.bolsamercantil.com.co/innovacion/tecnolog%C3%ADa/BMC/Mintic
